JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:40 PM EDT001
FXUS63 KJKL 111740
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
140 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly rain free weather is expected through Wednesday with only
a 20-40% chance of showers Sun afternoon into Sun night.
- Patchy frost is possible tonight to early Sat morning, mainly
in the sheltered hollows away from larger bodies of water.
- Patchy to widespread frost is forecast Mon night to early Tue
morning and again Tue night to early Wednesday.
- A freeze is possible in some spots Mon night to early Tue, with
a more widespread freeze possible Tue night to early Wed.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 140 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
Daily maximum temperatures were nudged a degree lower in some
areas as forecast temperatures run slightly below the forecast
temperature curve. Most locations should still reach the lower 70s
this afternoon.
UPDATE Issued at 1047 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
Fog and any patchy frost have dissipated, leaving behind full
sunshine late this morning. Still anticipate widespread high
temperatures in the lower to middle 70s this afternoon. Grids
were brought into line with the latest observations and zone
forecasts were updated to remove morning frost and fog wording.
UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and
trends. This led to no substantial changes. Valley fog along the
rivers and some of the larger creeks and lakes should lift and
dissipate by the 9 to 10 AM EDT timeframe. Any patchy frost in
the narrow hollows away from the larger bodies of water should
also dissipate early today and give way to sunny skies with high
pressure dominating.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 515 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
Early this morning, an upper level ridge extended from the eastern
Pacific across the Southwest Conus to the Southern Plains as well
east tot he Lower OH valley and Appalachian region. Meanwhile, an
upper level low was over the Hudson Bay vicinity with a shortwave
trough south to the Upper MS Valley while a shortwave trough was
moving from the BC to Alberta vicinity. At the sfc, a ridge of
high pressure was centered over WV and extended from the Mid
Atlantic to eastern TX. Further north a frontal zone extended from
an area of low pressure over Hudson Bay to just northwest of Lake
Superior to the Central Plains and then west and northwest into
the western Conus. Locally, some sheltered valleys were as cold as
35 to 37 per home weather stations with temperature ranging from
that level up to the upper 40s on the ridges. Per satellite
imagery, valley fog has again formed along the forks of the Big
Sandy, Cumberland, and Kentucky rivers and some of the larger
tributaries of these rivers with fog on some sections of the
Licking as well. A dry airmass is in place across the region with
PW currently analyzed in the 0.2 to 0.4 inch range from east to
west across eastern to south central KY.
Today and tonight, a trend of rising heights is progged over the
Lower OH Valley and eastern KY as the upper level ridging builds
into portions of the southeast Conus through midday followed by
near neutral height tendencies in the Lower OH valley and eastern
KY this afternoon into this evening. Heights will begin to fall
tonight over the Lower OH valley as a shortwave trough well north
of the area works across Ontario and the Great Lakes and into
Quebec and then enters St Lawrence Valley to Northeast late
tonight. At the same time, upper level ridging is progged to build
north form the southwest Conus across the Great Basin and into
the interior Northwest Conus while broad troughing takes shape
from Central and eastern Canada into the Upper MS Valley to
Northeast Conus. The next upstream shortwave should reach Manitoba
to the Dakotas by around dawn on Saturday. From today through
tonight, sfc high pressure will become centered over the Southern
Appalachians to the Deep South while the sfc frontal zone works
across portions of the Northeast Conus and sags to the south of
the Great Lakes before becoming nearly stationary over portions of
the Central Plains before turning north over sections of the High
Plains. Per the 00Z HREF PW is forecast to only modify slightly
to the 0.25 to 0.45 inch range today and then increase by late
tonight to the 0.35 to 0.60 inch range.
On Saturday, ridging is expected to remain in place from the
SOutheast Conus across portions of the ROckies to the BC/Alberta
border while broad troughing remains downstream from Central to
eastern Canada and into the Northeast, Great Lakes, mid Atlantic
to portions of the OH Valley. The next shortwaves will move into
Ontario to the upper MS Valley to eastern Great Lakes as well as
Manitoba to end the period. At the sfc, the frontal zone to the
north and northeast of eastern KY should sag into the mid
Atlantic states before becoming stationary from the Upper OH
Valley to a sfc low in mid MS Valley region before continuing
into the Plains to western Conus. A sfc high pressure ridge over
the Appalachians to Southeast will shift southeast on Saturday.
Per the 00Z HREF, by late Saturday afternoon, PW should increase
further to the 0.5 inches near the VA border to nearly 0.9 inches
in Fleming County ahead of the boundary to the north of the area.
Southerly flow will also bring milder air into the area, and
temperatures should climb into the 5 to 10 degrees above normal
range.
For today, river valley fog and any patchy frost in the more
sheltered valleys/hollows away from larger bodies of water will
dissipate by the 9 to 10 AM ED timeframe and give way to sunny
skies under sfc and upper level high pressure. Temperatures will
moderate to a couple of degrees above normal highs this afternoon.
The airmass will remain dry in the 10th to 25th percentile as far
as PW compared to climatology for this time of year. Afternoon
mixing should yield dewpoints in the mid 30s to around 40 degree
range and lead to min rh between 24 and 32 percent. Tonight, lows
should be a bit milder, but some of the normally coldest
hollows/valleys away from larger bodies of water could reach as
low as 35 to 37 degrees and may experience some patchy frost.
Otherwise, river valley fog is expected to develop after
midnight. Fog and any frost would once again lift and dissipate by
9 to 10 AM EDT. Southerly fog will lead to warmer highs and
moisture will also begin to increase resulting in min rh on
Saturday afternoon not as low as what occurred on Thursday and
what is expected later today. In addition, skies may not be as
sunny as some high clouds may pass overhead on Saturday afternoon
to early Saturday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
Sunday stands to be a warm day, with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s across eastern Kentucky. Winds will be breezy at times, with
southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph with gusts as high as 20-25 mph. An
approaching upper level trough will aid in frontogenesis as a cold
front approaches the state. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening. Lows are thought to
generally be in the low to mid 40s.
Post-frontal temperatures will be significantly cooler with highs in
the upper 50s to lower 60s Monday. Dry conditions return, with a cool
northwesterly wind. As the trough digs further south, it will bring
colder air into the area. Model 500 mb heights are sub 540 dm
Tuesday morning. Lows Monday night into Tuesday morning may be in
the lower 30s in the valleys and mid to upper 30s across higher
ridgetops. This will lead to widespread frost and potentially a hard
freeze. Any uncovered plants left outside will run the risk of
dying.
Tuesday and Wednesday look to be very similar to Monday, with high
temperatures in the upper 50s and lows in the lower 30s in valleys
and mid to upper 30s along ridgetops.
Thursday and just beyond the period on Friday there's some model
discrepancy on timing, however, a ridge is modeled to move
eastward toward the end of the week, leading to warmer
temperatures. Highs look to be back into the mid 60s to low 70s
each day.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
High pressure will continue to dominate through the period and
lead to prevailing VFR conditions at most terminals. The only
exception will be in river valleys (K1A6, KI35, etc.) where
valley fog is expected to form between 04 and 08z tonight and
persist through 13 to 14z Saturday. MVFR to IFR reductions will
again be possible in the valley fog, but TAF sites should not be
affected. Winds will remain light and variable.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...GEERTSON/JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:40 PM EDT---------------
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