CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:27 PM EDT937
FXUS61 KCLE 111727
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
127 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area this morning will move eastward
today. A warm front will lift northward across the Ohio Valley
amd Great Lakes today. A weak cold front will drop southward
through the Great Lakes tonight and stall out Saturday. A Low
pressure system will develop along the stalled front and track
across the region Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1:27 PM EDT Update...
Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. No changes appeared necessary.
Previous Discussion...
The near term forecast will bring a nice warm up for today and
very mild, comfortable temperatures through Saturday. It is
starting off very cool and for some folks a frosty Friday
morning with temps in the 30s across much of NEOH and NWPA which
is generally where we have the Frost Advisory through 9 AM.
NWOH is not as cool in the low to mid 40s this morning.
The high pressure system that track right over the area
overnight will continue to move east today towards the East
Coast. Southerly to southwesterly winds will return today on
the back side of the exiting high pressure system. A warm front
will lift across the region today and bring a big warm up this
afternoon. Plenty of sunshine today will also boost our high
temperatures in the low to mid 70s across northern Ohio this
afternoon. NWPA will only reach the upper 60s. NWOH will likely
climb into the upper 70s which is a 35 degrees or more swing in
temperatures from this morning cool start. Winds will increase
to 10 to 15 mph later this morning through the afternoon with a
few gusts possible up to 20 mph. The gusty wind potential will
be mainly areas of NWOH and closer to the lakeshore this
afternoon.
Quiet weather expect tonight and mild with overnight lows
generally in the 50s. There will be an increase in high and mid
levels clouds later tonight and skies will become more overcast
by Saturday. A weak cold front will drop southward across the
Great Lakes late tonight into Saturday and stall out over
the area. Low level moisture will start to pool along this weak
stalled boundary by Saturday afternoon. We will start to bring
back the chance for a few scattered light rain showers Saturday
afternoon over northern Ohio with POPs if 20 to 30 percent. High
temps will be not as warm in the upper 60s to lower 70s due to
more cloud cover and the weak front in the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front over the area will begin to lift north as a warm front
Saturday night into Sunday as surface low pressure over the tracks
east along the frontal boundary. Showers (and maybe a few
thunderstorms) remain likely areawide Saturday night through Sunday,
although there's some uncertainty in the exact track of the low and
the resulting placement of the precipitation axis. By Sunday night,
an upper trough axis will swing across the area as the low moves
into the northeastern CONUS, resulting in another push of showers
across the CWA. Expect a transition to lake effect rain showers by
Monday as the surface low deepens over the Northeast and 850mb temps
drop to -1 to -3C. As with most local lake effect events, the
highest PoPs will occur over the NE OH/NW PA, but portions of NW OH
may see some scattered lake effect rain showers Monday into Monday
night if northwest flow off Lake Michigan is strong enough. Rain
will be the primary precipitation type, but can't rule out a few
snowflakes mixing in with rain across the higher elevations of
interior NW PA as temperatures cool into the lower 30s late Monday
night. It also could be quite breezy on Monday as the pressure
gradient tightens in response to the deepening surface low.
Sunday will feature the last day of above normal temperatures with
highs in the 60s and lower 70s expected areawide. Temperatures will
begin to decline Sunday night (lows will be in the upper 30s to
lower 40s) and Monday's highs will remain in the 50s. The coolest
temperatures of the period will occur Monday night; most locations
will dip into the mid to upper 30s with lower 30s more likely across
interior NW PA. Frost is likely in locations with lower cloud cover
Monday night and a few spots in NW PA may drop close to
freezing.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper trough will anchor over the area through Tuesday and lake
effect rain showers will likely continue through Tuesday night.
There's still some uncertainty in how quickly the trough exits to
the east as a ridge builds in from the west so maintained PoPs
through Wednesday to account for uncertainty, but guidance is
suggesting that dry weather will return by no later than the predawn
hours of Thursday as surface high pressure takes control over the
region. Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week with highs in
the upper 40s to lower 50s expected, but expect a general warming
trend through the middle of the week with highs likely reaching the
upper 50s to lower 60s by Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the
30s to lower 40s each night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR expected next 24-hours. At the surface, a cold front is
poised to begin to sweep SSE'ward through our region after
~07Z/Sat and stall in Mid-OH by 18Z/Sat. The front will be
preceded and followed by ridging. Limited low-level moisture
along and ahead of the cold front is expected to permit a dry
front passage. However, low-level moisture is forecast to be
sufficient to allow scattered low-level clouds with bases near
5kft AGL to form along the front. Otherwise, periodic upper-
level clouds with variable coverage are expected to traverse
our region in association with subtle disturbances embedded in
WNW'erly flow aloft.
Our regional surface winds trend SW'erly around 5 to 15 knots
ahead of the cold front and may gust up to 20 knots at times,
especially through ~22Z/Fri. Behind the front, winds quickly
veer to W'erly and then toward NE'erly as a surface ridge builds
from the northern Great Lakes and vicinity. Winds are expected
to ease to around 5 to 10 knots behind the front.
Outlook...Periodic and scattered thunderstorms and/or rain
showers with non-VFR expected Saturday afternoon and especially
Saturday evening through Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots by late this morning
or early afternoon with winds approaching 30 knots in the open
waters of the far eastern basin of the lake tonight. Winds will
shift to the north/northwest tonight before quickly becoming
northeasterly and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots Saturday morning.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect from this afternoon or evening
until Saturday morning. A lull is expected Saturday and Saturday
night before low pressure tracks east somewhere in the vicinity of
Lake Erie on Sunday. North/northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25
knots Sunday afternoon through Monday and possibly into Tuesday,
which will most likely result in a stretch of Small Craft
Advisories. Some guidance is hinting at potential for stronger winds
on Monday as the pressure gradient tightens in response to the low
deepening over the northeastern United States so will need to
continue to monitor forecast trends in the upcoming days. Will also
need to keep an eye on the potential for waterspouts Sunday night
into early next week as a trough settles over the eastern Great
Lakes and 850mb temperatures plummet.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Saturday for LEZ145-146.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Maines
LONG TERM...Maines
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Maines
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:27 PM EDT---------------
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