JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 8:00 PM EDT195
FXUS63 KJKL 110000
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly rain free weather is expected through Wednesday with
only a 20-30% chance of rain Sunday evening into Sunday night.
- Patchy to areas of frost are possible tonight to early Friday
morning as well as Friday night to early Saturday morning,
mainly in the sheltered hollows away from larger bodies of
water.
- Patchy to widespread frost is forecast Monday night to early
Tuesday morning and again Tuesday night to early Wednesday.
- A freeze is possible in some spots Monday night to early
Tuesday, with a more widespread freeze possible on Tuesday
night to early Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 501 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2024
Satellite imagery shows another cloud-free afternoon across eastern
Kentucky. Temperatures range from mid 60s on northeast hilltops
to the mid 70s in the vicinity of Lake Cumberland. A northeasterly
breeze has brought in lower dew points, ranging mainly in the mid
30s to around 40, except in the 40s adjacent to Lake Cumberland.
The latest analysis shows ~1024 mb high pressure centered over
Lake Erie.
Model agreement in the short-term is excellent. High pressure will
drop south and crest over the Mid-Ohio Valley/West Virginia tonight
before settling to over the Southern Appalachians on Friday/Friday
night. Weak northeasterly flow will continue to bring in drier
air while a synoptic scale subsidence inversion lowers to near
mountaintop level. PWATs falling to below the 10th percentile
relative to climo (under 0.35 inches) are symptomatic of the air
mass dryness. This dry air mass, combined with light winds and
clear skies will allow for strong radiational cooling tonight. Dew
points remaining above freezing and ample evaporation along main
stem rivers and larger tributaries will help support dew points
and allow for another night of fog formation in the favored
valleys. However, the sheltered hollows and low-lying countryside
away from bodies of water won't achieve as much low-level
moisture recovery and are likely to see more effective radiational
cooling, leading to patchy frost in many of these locations. More
extensive areas of frost are possible in the typically cooler
locales of Elliott, Morgan, Magoffin, and Johnson counties and
also in high elevation valleys near the Virginia-Kentucky border.
On Friday, winds will back to westerly as the high pressure slips
to our southeast. This will allow a milder return flow to begin
infiltrating eastern Kentucky heading into the upcoming weekend.
In sensible terms, clear skies and light winds will accompany
temperatures falling into the mid 30s to lower 40s across most of
eastern Kentucky. Cooler readings approaching 32F are possible in
northern hollows and valleys east of the Escarpment (e.g. Flat
Gap, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, etc.) and also high elevation
valleys near the Virginia border (Eolia, Jenkins, Shelby Gap,
etc.). Patchy frost formation is expected in many narrow hollows
and also in low-lying open countryside and areas of frost are
possible in the aforementioned colder spots. Fog is expected to
develop again along the main stem rivers and larger tributaries,
limiting any frost potential there. Looking ahead to Friday,
bright sunshine prevails after any valley fog burns off. It will
be mild with highs in the lower to middle 70s at lower elevations.
Dew points in the 30s will lead to sub-30 percent minimum
relative humidity values at most locations. Another chilly night
is in store Friday night, though not as cool as tonight -- highs
are forecast to range from the mid 30s, coolest northern hollows
to upper 40s warmest thermal belt ridgetops.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2024
The large scale upper level flow pattern will start of with a broad
ridge of high pressure in place over the southeastern CONUS and
extending westward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Broad
troughing will be in place over the northern and northeastern US,
while another ridge aloft should be in place over the southwestern
CONUS, with a weak trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. This
pattern will gradually shift to the east over the weekend, as the
northern trough develops a perturbation on its western flank. Upper
ridging will keep the weather warm and dry to finish out the weekend
as southwesterly flow kicks in and strengthens a bit Sunday
afternoon. Highs on Sunday could reach the lower 80s in this warm
advection regime. A weak shortwave is then expected to move through
the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley regions Sunday into Sunday
evening. As this system moves through, it will drag a moisture
starved cold front with it. This boundary could spark a few rain
showers as it moves to the east. The rain should be at its peak
during the evening hours while the front is moving through, and
should be gone by late Sunday night. This will be the only
precipitation chances in the extended. As the trough and front
move through our area on Sunday, we could see increasing winds
during the afternoon and early evening hours. In fact, southwest
winds of around 10 mph, with gusts of up to around 20 mph, will be
possible. The winds should slack off Sunday night.
After the cold front moves off to our east Sunday evening, a
large and well developed ridge of Canadian high pressure is
progged to push into the region. This ridge will usher in a cold
air mass that will likely remain in place over the region through
the middle of the work week. Generally northwesterly flow should
act to effectively advect cold air into the Ohio Valley along with
eastern Kentucky. With clear skies and light winds on tap next
week during the night time periods, conditions will primed for
both ridge valley temperature splits and efficient radiational
cooling. In other words, the stage will be set for well below
nighttime lows and daytime highs, as the ridge settles over us. We
could see a few nights in a row with temperatures in the low to
mid 30s across the area, with the coldest air settling into our
deepest and most sheltered valleys, especially away from bodies of
water. Patchy to widespread late night frost will be possible
Tuesday through Thursday morning, which will be the weather hazard
of note in the extended period. Daytime highs should also be well
below normal, with daily maxes in the 50s and lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2024
High pressure will continue to help provide VFR conditions at the
TAF sites through the period. The only exception would be the
typical mainly river valley fog that could develop late tonight
and persist into Friday morning. This will lift out around 12 to
14Z on Friday morning. We will then return to VFR conditions area
wide through the remainder of the period. The winds will
generally remain light and variable.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 8:00 PM EDT---------------
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