BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 9:34 PM EDT137
FXUS61 KBOX 070134
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
934 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will result in plenty of sunshine and
pleasant temperatures today. A cold front moves through Southern
New England very late tonight into Monday, bringing a period of
rain showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms. The midweek
features dry conditions, below normal temperatures and the
potential for frost Wednesday and Thursday night. Will have the
temperatures moderate and warm Friday and Saturday, then trend
more seasonable for the second half of Columbus Day Weekend.
There are signs of unsettled conditions Sunday night into
Columbus Day Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
930 PM Update...
Clear skies and calm winds have allowed many localities to drop
close to their overnight lows, in the mid 40s on the Cape to mid
50s in urban centers. With moisture increasing ahead of
approaching convective line, do expect temperatures to nudge
back into the 50s by sunrise. Some patchy radiation fog has
accompanied this cooling across Plymouth county.
Cloud will continue to increase this evening as well, which
will cap radiational cooling; we've already seen this effect in
action across western MA where high clouds have prevented strong
cooling; Chicopee is a perfect example as they sit at 55F/46F.
Previous Update...
Clouds expected to clear out once again before a shortwave
makes its way through southern New England. Rain is expected to
start around 3-4 AM. These showers should pass through the area
relatively quickly with this front. Lapse rates are favorable
for the development of an isolated thunderstorm or two, and
there is some instability, particularly across the interior, to
monitor going into the daylight hours Monday. So a rumble of
thunder or two cannot be ruled out. Lows expected to be in the
50s and upper 40s for much of the area preceding this system.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points...
* Period of widespread showers, isolated thunderstorms possible
Monday
* Otherwise, dry and trending cooler
A cold front should completely move across our region Monday. A
period of showers is more likely than thunderstorms. Mid level
lapse rates are steeper than low level lapse rates. While there
looks to be enough instability to generate a few thunderstorms,
thinking the environment is not favorable for severe weather.
This front should be approaching the east coast of New England
towards evening, then move well offshore by midnight. A large
high pressure extending from central Canada into the Ohio River
Valley should then start taking control of our weather.
Near to slightly below normal temperatures anticipated for this
portion of the forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights:
* Daytime highs and low temperatures run below normal Wednesday
and Thursday, with moderation in temperatures starting
Friday into the early part of next weekend.
* Extended period of dry conditions through most of Columbus Day
Weekend, but there are signs of unsettled conditions Sunday
night into Columbus Day Monday.
Wednesday thought Friday...
The forecast remains in good shape heading towards the second-
half of the workweek and features crisp temperatures and dry
conditions. As previously mentioned, a mid-level low and cold
pool is placed to our north with shortwave energy pivoting about
it. A weak frontal boundary will pass through Wednesday
evening, but with below normal PWATs, should only see an
increase in cloud cover and result in a dry frontal passage.
PWATs much of this week are around 50% of normal which is
roughly 1/3" to 1/2". Nevertheless, dry conditions prevail
during this period with mostly clear skies as surface high
pressure builds in from the west.
850mb temperatures are roughly +5C to -2C, roughly 5C to 10C
below normal. This should result in highs in the upper 50s and
lower 60s Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Though, Thursday
could end up the coolest day of the week with highs between 55F
and 60F. Similar, the overnight lows are dropping into the 30s
most nights while the urban centers remaining a bit warmer in
the lower 40s. Continued to deviate slightly from the NBM which
has a warmer bias and utilized the CONSMOS which does well on
nights when we have radiational cooling. For a point of
reference, normal highs for early October range 63F to 68F and
lows 45F to 50F.
It is worth noting, average first frost for northern
Massachusetts which includes, the northern Worcester Hills and
east slope of the Berkshires, occurs around 1st of October.
Since we are beyond this date, there would be no headlines
issued in the event of frost or freeze. But, areas outside of
those noted locations, the frost and freeze program remains
active until 11th of October.
Columbus Day Weekend...
Much of the holiday weekend will features dry and warming
conditions with the potential of highs to return to the lower
70s on Saturday and then more seasonable in the 60s on Sunday
and Monday. The overnight lows warm up as well, more seasonable
in the mid to upper 40s and lower 50s at the coast. As for
precipitation, Saturday still appears dry, but there are signals
of unsettled weather possibly late Sunday into Monday, returning
the chance for rain. As this is nearly 7 to 8 days out, will not
dwell too much on this just yet.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...High Confidence.
VFR for the first-half of the night, then MVFR CIGs move in from
west to east after 06z, associated with a front and periods of
rain. This arrives in eastern Massachusetts between 09z-12z.
Monday...Moderate Confidence.
MVFR-IFR conditions should overspread most areas from west to
east between 09z to 12z Mon along with widespread showers. This
process may be 1 to 3 hours later towards the Cape and Islands.
Widespread showers with the risk for an embedded thunderstorm
or two will be possible. The back edge of the showers should be
east of the CT River Valley by afternoon, and near the I-95
corridor by early evening. Conditions to improve to VFR during
the afternoon from W to E. S winds 5-10 knots in the morning
should shift to the NW across interior southern New England
during the afternoon behind a cold frontal passage.
Monday Night and Tuesday...High Confidence.
VFR, except for a brief period of lingering MVFR towards the
east coast of MA Monday evening. W to NW winds.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
VFR into tonight. Rain expected around 10z with MVFR ceilings,
then possible IFR ceilings with embedded thunder is possible
around 14z until 16z. Moderate confidence in MVFR returning
around 16-21z. Winds expected to shift more SE tomorrow around
10 knots.
KBDL TAF... Moderate Confidence in TAF.
VFR into tonight. Rain possible starting around 09-10z. Low risk
for a thunderstorm. However, confidence is low at this time.
MVFR expected tomorrow through current TAF. Winds should shift
more SW to W around 15z below 10 knots.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.
Friday Night: VFR.
Saturday: Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Monday...High Confidence.
Very distant tropical systems in the Atlantic will allow
easterly swell of 3 to 6 feet to develop through Monday across
the outer waters. Therefore, Small Craft Advisories are posted
through Monday night. Added Nantucket, Block Island and Rhode
Island Sounds to the Small Craft Advisories due to marginal
5-foot seas across a portion of those waters.
NE winds 5 to 15 knots should shift to the SE tonight. SSE winds
continue on Mon with perhaps a few gusts near 25 knots across
the outer-waters.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.
Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday
night for ANZ232-235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-254-255.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ251.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Dooley/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin/KS
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Belk/Dooley/Hrencecin
MARINE...Belk/Dooley/Hrencecin
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 9:34 PM EDT----------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
