PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 8:54 AM EDT349
FXUS61 KPBZ 101254
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
854 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Another frost/freeze is likely again early Friday morning.
Otherwise, mainly dry weather is expected through Saturday. A
cold front will return rain chances for Sunday. Colder and
unsettled weather is expected early next with with a trough of
low pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mostly sunny and dry today
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Surface high pressure and northwest flow aloft will continue to
allow for seasonably cool temperatures and clear skies through
the day today.
Mixing into the subsidence inversion will keep dew points in the
30s, although cool daytime highs will inhibit relative
humidities from dropping much below the 30% mark.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Frost and freeze potential for Friday morning.
- Dry weather continues through much of Saturday
- Rain chances return Saturday night
Surface high pressure will be centered across the Upper Ohio
Valley region tonight. With clear skies and calm wind, areas of
frost are likely across the region. After coordination with
surrounding NWS offices, issued a Frost Advisory for most of the
forecast area tonight through early Friday morning. Areas
across Tucker and Preston counties could see freezing
temperatures, and a Freeze Watch was issued for those areas. Not
confident on freeze conditions being met, so only went with a
watch at this time. Even though the atmosphere decouples
tonight, warm advection at 850mb tends to limit the full
potential of radiational cooling.
After patchy river valley fog early Friday, mostly sunny skies
are expected as the high drifts southeastward. Warm advection
should return highs to above seasonable levels.
A weakening cold front will result in increasing clouds on
Saturday as it tracks across the Great Lakes region, before
stalling across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Only slight
chances of rain are expected as this occurs, mainly later in
the day across Ohio. Rain chances increase Saturday night as
a shortwave trough approaches from the Upper Midwest, and as
surface low pressure tracks across IL/IN and pulls the front
back north as a warm front.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cold front crosses Sunday with showers likely
- Colder and unsettled through early next week
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Showers are likely on Sunday as low pressure tracks across the
Lower Great Lakes region, and pulls a cold front across the
area.
Model ensembles then indicate a long wave trough will set
up across the NE CONUS through at least Tuesday. Shortwaves
rotation through the trough, and cold NW flow off of the Great
Lakes, will result in scattered showers across much of the area,
with more numerous showers near and north of I-80.
850mb temperatures are progged to drop to -2 to -3 deg C later
Monday and Tuesday, when a few snow flakes could mix in with the
rain north of I 80 and in the highest terrain. Mainly dry
weather should return Wednesday as the trough begins to shift
eastward.
Temperatures are expected to start out above average on Sunday,
with readings dropping to around 10 degrees below average by
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Current satellite fog product shows well defined fog along the
Ohio, Beaver, Allegheny, Monongahela, Youghiogheny, and Cheat
Rivers. None of the TAF sites have restrictions, though KPJC
does have IFR cig/vsby. River valley fog should burn off by 9
am.
After sunrise, northerly winds off of Lake Erie will likely
prompt a scattered cumulus field between 14Z to 15Z, mostly in
the vicinity of FKL/DUJ. Mid-level subsidence under high
pressure and mixing will likely dissipate any remain clouds
between 18Z to 20Z.
Fog formation should get another chance early Friday morning
due to our proximity to the surface high, which will promote
clear sky with little or no wind. Probability of restrictions at
the TAF sites are less than 20%.
.Outlook...
Clouds out in front of our next disturbance are expected to
return by Saturday morning. CIG restriction potentials rise
Sunday with a cold front sweeping the region.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ001>004-012-
021-509-510.
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
WVZ511>514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM/Milcarek
NEAR TERM...WM/Milcarek
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Craven
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 8:54 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
