JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 7:54 PM EDT101
FXUS63 KJKL 092354
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
754 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly rain free weather is expected through Wed with only a 20%
chances of across portions of the area Sun night to Mon
morning.
- Patchy frost is possible Thu night to early Fri morning, mainly in
the sheltered hollows away from larger bodies of water.
- Patchy to widespread frost is forecast Mon night to early Tue
morning; and again Tue night to early Wed; a freeze is possible
in sheltered hollows away from larger bodies of water both
nights.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 PM EDT WED OCT 9 2024
Not much to update other than the temperatures this evening.
Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term grids
were on track with the current conditions. Temperatures do seem to
be dropping fairly quickly this evening, and noted that the
overnight temperatures were a bit higher than our neighbors. Given
how quickly temps are dropping currently, decided to go in and
lower the overnight hourly and min temperature forecast. Will
continue to monitor as we head into the overnight hours in case
any additional updates need to be made to the temperatures,
especially those in the deeper valleys. All updates have been
published and sent to NDFD/web. Sent out a new Zone and SAF
product to update the overnight low wording.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 415 PM EDT WED OCT 9 2024
Pretty straight forward set up for the short term. A large ridge
of high pressure sprawled across the eastern third of the CONUS
will be our dominant weather feature tonight, Thursday, and
Thursday night. This feature will bring light winds and clear
skies to the area, both of which are conducive to ridge valley
temperature splits and valley fog. The set up is pretty much the
same as we've seen the past few nights, so the new forecast will
feature areas of valley fog late tonight into early Thursday
morning and again late Thursday night into early Friday. However,
it appears that conditions might still allow enough radiational
cooling in narrow, sheltered valleys, especially in our
northeastern areas, to produce some patchy frost Thursday night
into early Friday morning.
Tonight's temperatures should be close to normal, with a few
spots perhaps falling four or five degrees below normal by early
tomorrow morning. Thursday night will likely be a bit cooler,
with quite a few valley locations falling into the upper 30s. Some
valleys in our northeastern areas may plummet into the mid 30s.
Highs on Thursday will be quite pleasant and fall like, with highs
in the upper 60s and lower 70s on tap.
No weather hazards expected at this time in the short term.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 415 PM EDT WED OCT 9 2024
The extended portion of the forecast looks to feature mainly high
pressure in control of the weather across our area. The exception
will be the period Sunday and Sunday night, when a weak
disturbance aloft will move through the Ohio Valley. As this
system moves through, it could spark scattered rain showers across
eastern Kentucky, mainly Sunday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures ahead of the approaching system on Friday, Saturday,
and Sunday should be very pleasant, with highs in the 70s expected
each of those days. With strong sunshine and southerly flow also
on tap, we could see daytime maxes in the upper 70s over the
weekend, but especially on Sunday as the low level flow shifts to
the southwest and increases to 8 to 12 mph by late in the day. A
major pattern shift is then in the cards for the first couple of
days the upcoming work week. After the upper level system and its
surface cold front push through Sunday night, a cold Canadian air
mass is forecast by most model data to be advected into the
region, as a large and strong ridge of high pressure settles over
the region.
Monday night will see the first major change in temperatures, as
the ridge moves in. Lows Monday night will likely fall into the
30s around our area, with mid to upper 30s for most locations. As
the high moves almost directly overhead Tuesday and Tuesday night,
we could see the coldest temperatures of the fall season so far.
Radiational cooling will be maximized, especially Tuesday night.
Lows could easily fall into the mid 30s for most locations, with
some area perhaps even making it into the lower 30s. Monday night
and Tuesday will both likely see areas of frost, with widespread
frost and maybe even a killing freeze possible late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning. Damaging frost will also be possible
late Monday night and early Tuesday morning, but the following
night looks even more favorable for it. That being said, the frost
and cold temperatures will be the weather hazards of note in the
extended.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 9 2024
High pressure is still very much in control for this TAF period.
The result will be clear and calm conditions, with VFR expected
throughout the period at all the TAF sites. That being said, as
has been the trend, cooler valleys are likely to develop fog
overnight. However, this should be limited to elevations below
the TAF sites, and if trends continue, should not impact them.
Therefore, left mention of fog out of TAFs at this time. Winds
will continue to diminish overnight. They will remain light
heading into the day Thursday as well, but should be predominately
out of the NE, so went ahead and made a separate group to show
the return of predominate winds.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 7:54 PM EDT---------------
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