JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 10:27 AM EDT859
FXUS63 KJKL 091427 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1027 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly rain free weather is expected through Tue with only a 20%
chances of showers near the WV border Sun night to Mon morning.
- Patchy frost is possible Thu night to early Fri morning, mainly in
the sheltered hollows away from larger bodies of water.
- Patchy to widespread frost is forecast Mon night to early Tue
morning; a freeze is possible in sheltered hollows away from
larger bodies of water.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2024
Just did a quick forecast update to remove mention of morning fog
from the zone forecast text product. Also used recent obs to
freshen up the hourly grids and establish new trends. Based on
these, may need to issue another update later this morning or
early this afternoon to get temperatures and dewpoints up to
speed.
UPDATE Issued at 750 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2024
Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and
trends. This led to no substantial changes at this time. Fog,
generally along the rivers, larger creeks, and area lakes should
gradually lift and dissipate by the 9 to 10 AM EDT timeframe.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2024
Early this morning, a broad upper level low extended from
northeastern Ontario and across southern Quebec into the Northeast
Conus and was centered south of James Bay with an upper level
trough axis south to the mid Atlantic coast. An upper level ridge
extended from the eastern Pacific to the west of Baja toward the
Four Corners region and then to the Northern Rockies to Manitoba.
Meanwhile, Major Hurricane Milton was centered northwest of Cuba
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. A the surface, a ridge of
high pressure extended from the central to southern Appalachians
to the Mid MS Valley to the vicinity of the Ozarks to eastern TX.
A frontal zone extended from the eastern Atlantic to the southeast
of the Carolinas and then into the northern FL peninsula to the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico and then into TX. Further north,
another frontal zone/developing frontal zone extended from Quebec
to the eastern Great Lakes to portions of the upper MS Valley and
then north across the Dakotas to a sfc low centered in
Saskatchewan. To the north of this boundary a sfc ridge of high
pressure extended from the Hudson Bay region south to the western
Great Lakes. Locally, clear skies have been observed overnight
with temperatures having dropped into the 40s for most locations.
Coalfield ridgetops were generally in the upper 40s while several
valley locations were in the lower 40s as of 4 AM EDT. A couple of
home weather stations located in Morgan County reported 39F
recently. Valley fog is evident along portions of the forks of the
Cumberland River, forks of the Kentucky River, and the forks of
the Big Sandy River as well as along some of the larger
tributaries of these and area lakes.
Today and tonight, the center of the upper level low to the
northeast of eastern KY will meander to the lower St Lawrence
Valley with the axis of an associated upper level trough working
off the mid Atlantic coast. The axis of upper level ridging will
shift into Mexico and remain near the Four Corners region to the
Four Corners to upper MS Valley to Hudson Bay through the period.
Weak disturbances will cross the OH Valley/eastern KY area in the
northwest to northerly flow between the upper level ridge to the
southwest and the upper level low to the northeast of the area.
Meanwhile Hurricane Milton will continue northeast and into the
FL peninsula by late tonight. At the surface, confluent flow aloft
will support sfc high pressure building into the Great Lakes
through tonight. A weak moisture starved cold front should drop
south and southeast of it across eastern KY tonight. Upper level
ridging should build to the southwest of the Four Corners region
on Thursday and extend northeast across the Central Plains to
western Great Lakes to James Bay by late Thursday. A general trend
of increasing heights is expected across eastern KY/OH Valley on
Thursday as well while sfc high pressure builds across the Great
Lakes and into eastern KY. Along with the rising heights, the 1000
to 500 mb layer rh is forecast to drop off quite significantly to
the 20 to 30 percent range. Meanwhile, per HREF mean, PW
initially in the 0.5 to 0.7 inch range today and tonight should
drop to the 0.3 to 0.5 inch range by late Thu afternoon to early
Thu evening (about the 10th percentile for this time of year
climatologically for the region).
For today, sfc high pressure will dominate with mostly sunny to
sunny skies once valley fog lifts and dissipates through around
10 AM. Temperatures will average a degree or two warmer as
compared to Tuesday. Under a rather dry airmass this afternoon,
min humidity should average in the 27 to 37 percent range.
Southwestern portions of the area may experience a bit more
mixiness tonight, though locations that will be behind the
boundary first in the north and east should experience lows
tonight similar to what occurs this morning. Highs will average a
couple of degree cooler on average for Thursday, however, the
drier airmass should result in dewpoints bottoming out in the mid
30s to low 40s. This combination for Thursday should yield min rh
near the 1000 to 500 mb layer values or generally in the 24 to 34
percent range.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 434 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2024
Quiet weather is expected to continue Friday, with temperatures in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. At night, clear skies and calm winds
will help most of the daytime radiation escape back to space,
allowing for ample night time cooling. Lows are expected to range in
the upper 30s to low 40s across many of the valleys. Some areas of
patchy fog, along with patchy frost may develop.
Saturday, some warm air should advect in from the south allowing for
warmer temperatures across eastern Kentucky. Many will see mostly
sunny skies, with highs in the mid to upper 70s across the area.
Lows are expected to be warmer in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Sunday, ensemble guidance is hinting at a significant pattern change
that would send parts of the area well below average next week. The
trio of models making up the Cluster mean, shows a shortwave
developing from the Alberta, Canada region and strengthening by
Sunday evening over the Great Lakes region. As this trough
strengthens, eastern Kentucky looks to be under diffluent flow which
may lead to an slight chance of a shower or two across extreme
eastern Kentucky such as Paintsville down to Pikeville. Sunday will
actually be the warmest day with southerly flow ahead of the
approaching trough. Highs are expected to be in the mid 70 to lower
80s in the warmest spots. Lows will generally be in the 40s that
evening.
Monday onward, the upper-low deepens becoming a large scale
positively tilted trough, dragging with it lower heights and cooler
air. Tightening isobars suggest the potential for breezy conditions
for eastern Kentucky each afternoon through the first half of next
week. Highs Monday shape up to me much cooler in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. The low temperatures could be much colder than models are
indicating. Typically under this pattern the 5th to 10th percentile
range of the NBM is more representative of valley locations of
eastern Kentucky, while the 50th percentile or deterministic
forecast of the NBM may also be too cold for some of the ridges.
With that in mind, low temperatures are being forecasted in the
low 30s for the valleys and mid to upper 30s for the ridge tops.
This will likely be the 1st of a few upcoming nights that have
more areas seeing frost. Patchy to areas of fog will likely be
present as well. As the low continue to deepen, colder poleward
air continues to be dragged south. Tuesday and Wednesday look to
have high temperatures in the mid 50s, with lows in the lower 30s
in valleys with upper 30s to low 40s along ridgetops, with the
potential for more valley fog and frost.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2024
VFR conditions were observed to begin the period at most locations
and VFR will largely prevail throughout the period. The lone
caveat is fog in the deeper valleys along rivers, larger creeks,
and area lakes. This fog is initially dense with visibility below
one quarter of a mile in some areas, but will gradually lift and
dissipate by the 14Z to 15Z timeframe. This was not impacting the
TAF sites, however. Fog should again develop and some of the
deeper valley areas between 06Z and 12Z with MVFR or IFR
reductions. Winds will be generally light and variable, around 5KT
or less, averaging between northwest and northeast during peak
daytime heating.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 10:27 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
