NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 7, 7:00 AM CDT053
WTNT44 KNHC 071149
TCDAT4
Hurricane Milton Special Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen. The Air
Force aircraft very recently reported a peak flight-level wind of
120 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to
around 945 mb, which is down about 9 mb from a previous dropsonde
report from the NOAA aircraft about an hour ago. This special
advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to
110 kt, and to increase the short term intensity forecast that now
shows a peak wind speed of 135 kt in 24 hours.
The aircraft fixes were also a little south of the previous
forecast track and a southward adjustment to the official track
forecast has been made through 36 hours. Hurricane-force winds
are explicitly forecast to affect the northern coast of Yucatan,
and residents in that area should rush preparations to completion.
The updated track forecast has necessitated the government of Mexico
to issue a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Celestun
southward to Campeche. The storm surge forecast has been increased
to 3 to 5 feet above ground level for portions of the northern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula.
No changes to the NHC track or intensity forecast were made after
36 hours.
This special advisory was issued in lieu of the normal intermediate
advisory.
Key Messages:
1. Dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A life-threatening
storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should
follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to
do so.
3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and
areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major
river flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1200Z 21.8N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.6N 91.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 7, 7:00 AM CDT---------------
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