NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 8, 7:00 PM AST923
WTNT43 KNHC 081436
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024
Satellite images show Leslie has made a bit of a comeback this
morning, with convection trying to wrap around the center. Microwave
passes also display that Leslie still has some inner-core features
including a partial eyewall. Overall, Dvorak estimates are about
the same as earlier, so the initial wind speed will stay 60 kt.
Plentiful dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere has been
preventing sustained deep convection near Leslie, despite
low-to-moderate shear. Leslie does have a short window where the
shear diminishes later today and tomorrow, though Leslie will also
be contending with less instability near the wake of Kirk. While
some of the guidance is showing re-strengthening, the above factors
generally argue for little significant change during the next day or
so. The new forecast is nudged higher than the previous one, but
lies below the model consensus through 36 hours. After that time,
the storm should encounter strong northerly flow of over 50 kt,
which is forecast to cause Leslie to quickly decouple and degenerate
into a remnant low by this weekend.
The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/11 kt.
There are no significant track changes to report as Leslie is being
steered around the southwest to northwest sides of the subtropical
ridge, causing the storm's motion to change to the north late
tomorrow and then recurve to the northeast later this week. Only
cosmetic changes were made to the last NHC forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 19.4N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 20.5N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 21.7N 47.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 22.6N 48.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 24.6N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 26.3N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 12/1200Z 30.7N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 13/1200Z 34.0N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Blake
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 8, 7:00 PM AST---------------
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