LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 10:00 AM EDT341
FXUS63 KLMK 091400
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1000 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather and seasonable temperatures through the weekend.
* Turning cooler Monday with areas of frost possible Monday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
Was a chilly morning with some cooler spots in the KY Mesonet
hitting 39 degrees and mostly the low 40s. Since the morning low,
temperatures have warmed to the crisp low-mid 50s. Temperatures will
continue this trend into the mid-upper 70s by this afternoon.
Current forecast remains on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
Abundant sunshine and seasonal temps will persist today as NW flow
aloft weakens a bit and sfc high pressure over the mid Mississippi
Valley continues to modify. Temps this afternoon look to run 2-3
degrees warmer than Tuesday as low-level thicknesses increase. This
will put us slightly above climo, while favorable radiational
cooling conditions tonight will drop min temps slightly below climo.
Can't rule out some very patchy fog late tonight into early Thu
morning, but coverage will be quite limited due to the dry air mass.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
Synopsis...Anomalous mid-level ridge will extend from the northeast
Pacific/Mexico into the Central US at the beginning of the medium-
range period. Meanwhile, Canadian upper-level low will be ejecting
through New England with embedded shortwave trough pushing a diffuse
cold front down the Ohio Valley. During the weekend, synoptic
pattern will largely amplify over the CONUS as the ridge extends
into Canada with strong positive height anomalies over the
Alberta/Saskatchewan region. The resultant downstream flow will
feature broad Eastern US troughing with potential cut-off low
whereas upstream shortwave Pacific energy will undercut the ridge.
Model Confidence/Evaluation...Above-average model consensus through
the weekend yields high confidence in the forecast during this
period. On the other hand, forecast confidence quickly decreases
early next week in association with the Eastern US trough
amplification and the development of the upper-low. The AI-based
models AIFS and GraphCast-GFS depict a faster evolving pattern while
the dynamic counterparts, especially the CMC and to a lesser degree
GFS, are slower with the low ejection and even show some retrograde
motion. Such uncertainties may impact the degree of cooling and its
residence time over the forecast area.
Thursday - Friday...Surface high pressure and very dry airmass will
maintain sunny and mild afternoons. Diffuse backdoor cold front on
Thursday will bring a brief period of moderate CAA Thursday night
resulting in lows falling back to the 40s with some sheltered
locations in the Bluegrass probably in the upper 30s. By Friday
night, surface high pressure will move south of the region switching
winds to a southerly direction and, therefore, promoting warm air
advection.
Weekend...Gradual warm-up trend will see afternoon temperatures
return to the upper 70s and low 80s. Limited moisture advection and
weak lifting ahead of the approaching cold front will promote some
mid to upper cloudiness over the forecast area, but otherwise models
have backed off from any precipitation chances as the low levels
remain dry. If anything, a few sprinkles could be reported Sunday
evening/night along the frontal boundary with breezy southwesterly
flow Sunday afternoon.
Next Week...Still advertising below-normal temperatures and dry
conditions through most of the week. Also, frost will be a concern
during the morning hours of Tuesday and Wednesday, with special
attention to midweek lows when widespread 30s could be reported.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
VFR conditions through the TAF period, high pressure and a dry air
mass to maintain clear skies and light winds. N-NE winds around 5 kt
this afternoon will decouple at sunset. Any fog tonight will be very
patchy, so will not mention in the TAFs.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRM
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...ALL
AVIATION...RAS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 10:00 AM EDT---------------
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