JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 8, 8:05 AM EDT311
FXUS63 KJKL 081205 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
805 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and dry air is now in place across eastern Kentucky,
making for rain free and comfortable early autumn conditions for
much of this week.
- Patchy frost still looks possible Thursday night and early
Friday morning, primarily in the sheltered hollows away from
larger bodies of water.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2024
Only minor changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These tweaks have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2024
08Z sfc analysis shows cool and dry high pressure building into
the area from the northwest. This brought clear skies and light
winds to eastern Kentucky this night and as a result a good bout
of radiational cooling is underway. Accordingly, temperatures
are exhibiting a fairly typical ridge to valley split early this
morning varying from the lower 50s on the ridges to the mid 40s in
the valleys. Meanwhile, amid the tendrils of river valley fog -
some locally dense - as evidenced on satellite, dewpoints are
uniformly in the low to mid 40s.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of
the forecast. They all depict Kentucky between larger systems in
the longwave pattern at 5h through Wednesday. To the northeast, a
deep closed trough will dominate the New England states while
broad ridging is found over the Desert Southwest. Just west of
Kentucky, between these dominant features, some mid level energy
impulses will work southeast in northwest flow - staying well
away from the JKL CWA as a benign upper level pattern holds. The
very small model spread again warranted using the NBM solution as
the starting point for the grids along with some adjustments for
more terrain distinctions in temperatures at night and slightly
drier afternoon dewpoints.
Sensible weather features seasonable early autumn weather with
clear blue skies, comfortable humidity, and afternoon highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s both today and Wednesday. At night we can
again expect some river valley fog to become locally dense while a
distinct ridge to valley temperature difference ensues on the
order of 5 to 10 degrees. Winds will be light and favor the north
to northeast during the period.
The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of
adjusting the hourly T grids for more terrain details at night
and a faster valley drop off after dark. Did also dry out the
dewpoints a bit extra both afternoons. As for PoPs - they were
kept at zero - in line with all guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2024
500 mb model analysis shows a ridge over Central parts of Canada
and CONUS, while Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall
sometime Wednesday night or Thursday across portions of central
Florida. With high pressure to the north of the storm, Hurricane
Milton will be quickly steered away from making any impact inland
like the previous one.
For Eastern Kentucky, dry and fall like temperatures continue
through Friday, with high temperatures expected in the upper 60s
to low 70s. Night time lows are expected to drop considerably due
to the dry air in place. Forecasted dew points range in the mid to
upper 30s across the area. It its not unreasonable to see lows in
the mid to upper 30s in colder parts of the valleys. Lows will
generally be in the upper 30s to low 40s through Friday morning.
Along with areas of morning fog. Patchy frost may develop Thursday
morning across some of the colder valleys.
Saturday and Sunday, southerly winds will advect warmer air into
the area leading to high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. A
trough ejecting out of Alberta, Canada will jet southeast into
the Great Lakes region and by Monday, scattered showers may be
possible across eastern Kentucky. After the front moves through
Highs are expected to be much colder in the low across much of the
area Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2024
VFR conditions will hold through the period. There will be some
development of valley fog tonight, but it will not have any
impact on our terminals. Winds will be generally light and
variable, around 5 kts or less, except with a north-northwest
tendency during peak daytime heating.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 8, 8:05 AM EDT---------------
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