NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 8, 7:00 AM AST125
WTNT43 KNHC 080240
TCDAT3
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 07 2024
Deep convection has continued to pulse this evening in Leslie,
with the larger cirrus shield taking on an amorphous shape. Under
the cirrus canopy, the last few SSMIS microwave passes suggest that
the hurricane's structure continues to degrade, with the tighter
inner-core seen yesterday at this time no longer observed. The
subjective Dvorak estimates this evening were T4.0/65 kt from SAB
and T4.5 from TAFB. However, the objective intensity estimates have
decreased further, with the most recent DMINT down to 61 kt. Thus,
the initial intensity was lowered slightly to 65 kt this advisory.
The wind radii were adjusted a bit outward thanks to a helpful
ASCAT-B pass earlier this evening.
Leslie has maintained its northwestward motion, currently estimated
at 310/12 kt. There is not a lot of new information to provide for
the track reasoning this cycle, with Leslie rounding the western
side of a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The hurricane should
maintain its northwestward motion over the next day or two, followed
by a turn northward towards the end of this week once it reaches the
western edge of this synoptic steering feature. The track guidance
this cycle is just a notch left of the prior forecast, and the NHC
track has been nudged in that direction, but is still quite close to
the prior track forecast.
Leslie is currently battling a fairly marginal environment with
mid-level southerly shear of 20-25 kt continuing to undercut the
seemingly more favorable 200 mb upper-level flow. A ribbon of very
dry environmental air that can be seen on GOES-16 water vapor
imagery, which is likely being imported near Leslie's center,
contributing to its degraded inner-core structure seen on microwave
imagery. This shear is expected to persist, before quickly shifting
out of the north and increasing above 40 kt after 48 h. Intensity
guidance remains insistent that Leslie will weaken slowly at first,
and then more dramatically after this shear increases. The GFS,
ECMWF, and HAFS-A/B runs show Leslie quickly becoming devoid of
convection after 72 h due to this shear, and the NHC forecast
continues to show Leslie becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 96 h.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 18.4N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 19.6N 44.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 21.0N 46.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 22.2N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 23.0N 48.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 23.8N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 25.0N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 28.0N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 13/0000Z 32.0N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 8, 7:00 AM AST---------------
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