IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 6:40 AM EDT439
FXUS63 KIND 071040
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
640 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather expected through this week
- Seasonable temperatures early this week, warming trend back to
upper 70s mid-late week
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024
Surface high pressure will remain in control across central Indiana
through the short term period.
Today...
Cold advection low clouds across northern Indiana are having a hard
time moving farther south early this morning, with dry air in place.
Believe this trend will continue with perhaps only a few of these
reaching the far northern part of the forecast area.
Otherwise, the only clouds expected today would be a few to
scattered mid and high clouds moving in late with some upper energy
moving through the upper trough.
After a much cooler start this morning, sunshine will boost
temperatures back into the upper 60s to around 70.
Tonight...
The upper energy moving through the upper trough will deepen the
trough, and a surface trough will move through far northeast
Indiana. The main impact from these will be another surge of low
level dry air moving in, as well as some passing mid and high clouds.
Light winds, a mostly clear sky, and the drier air will allow decent
radiational cooling conditions. Blended guidance doesn't capture
this well, so will lower some from this guidance. Lows will be in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024
A prolonged dry spell will persist through next week as strong high
pressure and ridging dominates the region. Despite sunny skies and
warm temperatures, there will be enhanced fire danger concerns each
afternoon, as well as potentially deteriorating drought conditions
once again.
High pressure dives southeast out of Canada this weekend becoming
centered over the state by Tuesday. Cold air advection and northerly
flow ahead of the system will "cooler" temperatures down from summer-
time levels to near normal for this time of year. Even on the cooler
side of the high pressure system, expect highs to at least reach the
lower 70s across the region with ample sunshine. Normal highs and
lows are currently right around 70 and 50, though steadily declining
through the month and by mid month we lose another 4-6 degrees on
average. Ridging nudges eastward over the region by the end of the
week with increasing low level warm air advection resulting in above
normal high temperatures once again. Both long term and
deterministic guidance are in good agreement with this warming trend
with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s again by Friday.
Dry conditions will likely lead to enhanced diurnal temperature
ranges, with widespread lows in the 40s across the region and low
50s in urban areas. Watching Tuesday morning for the coolest lows in
the long term period as optimal conditions for radiational cooling
set up with high pressure directly overhead. The Wabash River Valley
and wind sheltered spots away from urban areas have the potential to
dip into the upper 30s around sunrise Tuesday morning. Not expecting
frost, but morning lows will likely be noticeable cooler than what
they have been this week.
Will continue the trend of adjust forecast dewpoints and RH downward
toward the NBM10-25th percentile during the afternoons many days
this week, as despite relatively light winds, it will require only
modest mixing in a very dry column to produce potentially
substantial dewpoint drops in the afternoons. This is an area where
NBM is known to struggle, often significantly. The aforementioned
light winds will mitigate fire concern somewhat, at least with
respect to reaching red flag conditions, but continually drying
fuels and afternoon RH values potentially nearing critical levels
will present at least some concern.
Longer term guidance does suggest some potential for precipitation
near or just beyond the end of the forecast period with another
quick moving upper low and cold frontal passage late next weekend
into early the following week, but long term outlooks remain fairly
strongly warm and dry, and prevailing westerlies look to remain
displaced well poleward for most of the next couple of weeks at
least. CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are strongly indicative of
below normal precipitation and nearly as strongly indicative of
above normal temperatures, and this is well-supported by long term
guidance, including the CFS.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024
Impacts:
- Winds may vary between NW and NNE today
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Surface high
pressure will continue to provide dry and quiet conditions. A few
clouds around 5000FT may sneak into KLAF very early in the period.
Otherwise only some passing high clouds will be around.
As the high settles south, winds may vary between NW and NNE today,
but speeds will be less than 10kt for the most part.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 6:40 AM EDT---------------
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