IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 6:31 AM EDT364
FXUS63 KIWX 051031
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
631 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Extended period of dry weather persists into next week.
- Warmer conditions this weekend followed by cooler (near
normal) temperatures early next week. Temperatures should
moderate again to above normal late next work week.
- Elevated fire risk for brush and field fires Sunday afternoon due
to dry, mild and breezy conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
Today will mark the beginning of a warming trend that will continue
into Sunday in advance of a cold front. A low level ridge axis early
this morning is situated from central Kentucky to the Lake Huron
vicinity. A weaker gradient across far northeast Indiana/northwest
Ohio/south central Lower Michigan early this morning and slightly
higher low level dew points could be conducive for some patchy
shallow fog through 12Z. Otherwise today, low level gradient will
strengthen as a warm front begins to lift northeastward from
the Central Plains. The initially expansive low level ridge
across eastern CONUS will continue to create a circuitous route
for better low level moisture return from the central Plains
into central Wisconsin later this afternoon. For the local area,
just some patches of mid level cloud are expected today as mid
level WAA overspreads southern Lakes in response to approaching
mid level ridging. Orientation of low level thermal ridge still
looks to produce the warmest temps today around the 80 degree
mark across the west/southwest portions of the forecast area,
and in the mid-upper 70s elsewhere. Near term forecast soundings
continue to suggest top of the mixed layer winds of 20-25
knots, suggesting afternoon gusts to 20 to 25 mph are possible
from northwest Indiana into southern Lower Michigan.
A potent upper level trough across SW Canada this morning will reach
western Ontario Sunday morning with an accompanying cold front
expected to extend from far northern Lower MI into NW Indiana by 12Z
Sunday. Deepest low level moisture pooling is still expected across
central and northern Lower MI where low level convergence is
expected to be more pronounced in closer proximity to stronger
vorticity advection with this short wave. Across far southern lower
Michigan and points south, low level CIN for low level parcels still
appears to be possible limiting factor for isolated convection.
Given narrow EML advecting into the region, higher based parcels
based in the 750-700mb layer may still have enough highly
elevated instability to work with on southern fringe of the
stronger mid/upper forcing for an isolated shower potential.
Thus, have maintained slight chance PoPs north of US 6 for late
tonight into early Sunday morning. Favorable pre-frontal thermo
environment should quickly shift off to SE Lower MI/OH toward
daybreak Sunday, with additional chances of showers/storms
later in the day Sunday expected to remain east of the local
area due to fast frontal timing.
Of greater concern Sunday will be an elevated fire risk given
mild and breezy conditions behind the front, along with
significant low level dry air advection. Weak trop fold type
feature across the northern Great Lakes and broad mid level
subsidence should enhance post-frontal drying across the region
with a potential of sfc dew points to drop well into the 30s
across portions of northern Indiana. With temps in the 70s, this
would yield min afternoon relative humidities in the 20-30
percent range. These conditions would create an elevated fire
risk, mainly for fine fuels, leading to to a risk for brush and
field fires Sunday afternoon.
No major changes made to model blended consensus for Monday and
beyond. Monday will feature cooler post-frontal conditions, with a
gradual warming trend during mid-late work week given an overall
trend in medium range guidance of mid-upper flow amplification. This
evolution would eventually allow longwave ridging to build back
across south central Canada/central CONUS by Friday with return of
above normal temps. Dry conditions are expected to persist
through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
With a warm front slowly trending northward through this TAF period,
winds with a easterly component will become more southerly by end of
the period. The potential for LLWS is elevated with the warm front
nearby, but the excited surface winds/gusts indicate still a
potential coupled atmosphere that may be incapable of LLWS. Will
include it in these TAFs, but future shifts will want to keep an eye
on this for future issuances. Additionally, mid level moisture
associated with the warm front will allow for mid level cloudiness,
but will keep flight conditions in VFR through the period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT
Monday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Marsili
AVIATION...Roller
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 6:31 AM EDT---------------
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