ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 6:20 AM EDT817
FXUS61 KILN 071020
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
620 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and abundant sunshine are on tap through the
entirety of the workweek, with slightly below normal
temperatures. A small chance of rain may return this weekend,
but a drier than normal pattern is expected through at least the
middle of the month.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The cold front has cleared the local area, with northerly flow
bringing in some cooler and drier air, which will remain
entrenched across the Ohio Valley through the next 5 to 7 days.
Temperatures continue to fall early this morning amidst sfc CAA,
with temps around daybreak expected to be in the upper 40s just
about everywhere.
While we could see a FEW VFR Cu into the afternoon, moisture
availability is going to be limited, so many spots will likely
see a completely clear/blue sky through most, if not all, of the
daytime. This abundant sunshine, despite northerly sfc flow,
will allow for temps to top out in the mid to upper 60s. While
dewpoints should mix out into the upper 30s and lower 40s by
mid/late afternoon, but RH values should generally stay above
30%.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Fairly good radiational cooling conditions are expected tonight
as winds become light amidst mainly clear skies. There should
be just a few mid/high clouds this evening through early
overnight, but mostly clear skies should prevail. This setup
will allow for temps to dip into the upper 30s and lower 40s
for most spots. This could lead to some very patchy frost in
low-lying, sheltered, rural areas by sunrise Tuesday, but most
locales will stay just warm enough that frost potential should
remain rather low for the majority of the area.
Temps rebound rather quickly/nicely once again during the day
Tuesday, topping out in the upper 60s once again with bountiful
sunshine on tap.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will remain centered over the region through Friday. A
cold front will approach from the northwest Friday night. It will
move into the CWA Saturday and lay out in a w-e orientation between
the Ohio River and I-70 Saturday night. On Sunday, a strong low is
expected to traverse the area from sw-ne, followed by another cold
front.
Through Friday night, near normal low temperatures in the lower 40s
will be accompanied by slightly warmer than normal high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s. As the surface high pressure moves
east, return flow on Saturday ahead of the next cold front will
bring warmer temperatures. Highs in the mid-upper 70s for the
weekend will occur with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Sunday
could be cooler based in track and timing of the surface low, with
overnight lows from 45-50. Highs Monday will be notably cooler
from 60-65 with overnight lows a few degrees on either side of 40.
A dry and sunny/clear forecast is in store for the Ohio Valley. The
weekend cold front will bring the next opportunity for rain, but
models are relatively sparse with a significant dry airmass
entrenched ahead of it.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Clear skies have evolved locally in the post-frontal
environment, with a few VFR Cu possible in the N into the
afternoon. Northerly winds around 10kts will persist through
the daytime before decreasing to around 5kts by 00z Tuesday.
A few mid/high clouds will stream into the region after 00z,
but VFR conditions are expected for the local sites through the
TAF period. The lone exception to this may be at KLUK where
some river valley BR/FG will likely lead to VSBY reductions
during the predawn hours Tuesday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 6:20 AM EDT---------------
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