ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 7:38 PM EDT727
FXUS61 KILN 062338
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
738 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible into early
evening in eastern parts of the area as a cold front moves
through the region. Dry conditions will return for the remainder
of the upcoming week as high pressure builds across most of the
United States. Near normal, to slightly below normal,
temperatures are on tap through the week with bountiful
sunshine.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Progressive mid level shortwave to pivot thru the Great Lakes
today. Associated relatively strong surface cold front currently
pushing into west central Ohio to drop east-southeast across
the area this aftn. Model solutions continue to be a little
slower with frontal passage. Storm chances are expected to be
confined to a relatively small window late this afternoon into
early evening across the east where isold to scattered
convective coverage is expected. An axis of moderate instability
(ML CAPE of 1000-1500 J/KG) will fuel the storms.
Given moderate instability and seasonably strong deep- layer
shear - there should some organization to the storms along the
leading edge of the front. The potential for a strong to severe
storm or two exists late this afternoon into early evening in
the far east. Then main threats are strong winds and large hail.
Also, with drier air filtering in from the NW in the post
frontal environment, RH values are expected to dip below 25% for
a brief period late in the day into early evening. This
combined with gusty northwest winds on the order of 25 kts, will
create elevated fire weather conditions across West Central
Ohio.
Northwest winds this evening will subside and go more northerly
overnight, with mainly clear skies expected. This will allow
for temps to drop to lows in the mid to upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Northwest mid level flow with a large area of surface high
pressure nosing into the area. Dry air advects into the region
on northwest winds. Expect abundant sunshine with only a few
fair weather cumulus clouds. Temperatures will be considerably
cooler with highs in the mid and upper 60s.
Dry airmass in place with surface high pressure dominating
Monday night. Expect mainly clear skies with lows between 40 and
45.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure parks over the Ohio Valley for most of the
upcoming week. Temperatures start off near seasonal averages on
Tuesday before slowly moderating through Saturday as southerly
flow increases on the west side of the surface high late in the
week. The next cold front may arrive next weekend which results
in some chances for rain. Otherwise, dry conditions persist
along with abundant sunshine.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will continue to advance southeast overnight and
out of the area. Skies will clear behind the front. In the CAA
pattern, winds will veer to the northwest and north, initially
10 to 15 knots with local gusts up to 20 knots, then settle down
into the 5 to 10 knots sustained range.
High pressure will gradually build in from the the northwest
Monday into Monday night. A FEW diurnal cumulus clouds may occur
between 16Z and 23Z. Otherwise, a FEW mid clouds may drift in
from the northwest Monday night.
Winds will continue from the northwest and north between 8 and
12 knots on Monday. Sustained winds will then diminish to 5
knots or less on Monday night.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 7:38 PM EDT---------------
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