MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 7:08 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...048
FXUS64 KMOB 071208
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
708 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast with east-
northeasterly winds around 10 knots. Winds will relax overnight.
BB/03
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 539 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024
Sunny and dry conditions will continue through the forecast as a
subtle shortwave lifts off to the northeast and shortwave ridging
begins to build. A subtle re-enforcing front will move through
the area this afternoon bringing lower dewpoints across the area.
Outside of maybe one or two isolated showers along the front we
should remain rain free. Temperatures will increase into the upper
80s given the lack of cloud cover before decreasing into the low
to mid 80s on Tuesday. With a tightening pressure gradient across
our marine waters, increased winds have led to increased surf
heights and a HIGH risk of rip currents remains in effect. This
will likely persist through the week as Hurricane Milton moves
east across the far southern Gulf. BB/03
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024
We remain in a post-frontal pattern as a surface high builds into
the Southeast late in the week and over the weekend. Zero chance
for rain through Sunday with pleasant autumn temperatures. Drier
air filters into the region due to being on the northwest side of
Hurricane Milton and due to the recent frontal passage. Milton is
forecast to be a MAJOR HURRICANE approaching the eastern Gulf
(well south of our local area) by Wednesday morning. Milton poses
no threat to our local area and the only impacts we will receive
locally are along the beaches and out over our Gulf waters. Surf
will continue to build through the day on Wednesday with breakers
of 5-7 feet Wednesday night into early Thursday. The risk of rip
currents remains HIGH as swell from Milton reaches our beaches.
Conditions along the coast will improve through the day on
Thursday as Milton moves into the Atlantic.
In the wake of the front and hurricane, high temperatures will only
top out in the upper 70s to low 80s area-wide through the weekend.
Lows will bottom out in the 50s across inland communities with low
60s at the beaches in this pattern. 07/mb
MARINE...
Issued at 537 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024
Moderate to occasionally strong east-northeasterly winds will
continue through Monday. Seas will increase to around 4 to 7 feet
offshore and a small craft advisory remains in effect. Winds and
seas will subside temporarily on Tuesday before increasing again
out of the northeast on Wednesday. Additional small craft
advisories will likely be needed as Hurricane Milton moves east
across the southern Gulf. BB/03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 88 64 86 63 87 62 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 88 68 87 68 84 65 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 87 71 86 71 83 66 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 89 61 87 60 85 58 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 89 58 83 57 84 58 82 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 89 58 85 60 83 57 81 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 88 62 88 63 83 59 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ650-655.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 7:08 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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