BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 1:50 AM EDT493
FXUS61 KBOX 030550
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
150 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue through the rest of the week with warming
temperatures into the 70s. An approaching cold front may bring a
brief period of scattered showers Saturday morning, which will be
followed by lots of sunshine. A ridge of high pressure will bring
dry and pleasant weather Sunday, but an approaching cold front may
bring a period of showers by Monday. Dry but cooler fall-like
weather will be ushered into the region Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM Update...
Radiational cooling is out in full force across eastern MA and
RI where temperatures have fallen into the upper 40s in some of
our typically prone spots like Boston and Norwood. Clouds moving
in ahead of the approaching cold front/shortwave have capped
cooling in the CT River Valley, so temperatures remain in the
mid to upper 50s there. It's likely that more localities along
the I-495 and 128 corridors fall into the 40s over the next few
hours before the cloud deck moves east.
Some patchy fog has already developed in Norwood. As mentioned
by the previous forecaster, there remains the risk for a very
isolated shower tonight across the high terrain of western MA.
Previous update...
Weakening shortwave moves across SNE this evening. Scattered
showers accompanying this shortwave are already showing signs of
dissipating as they approach eastern NY. There is a low risk
for a few sprinkles in the high terrain of western MA this
evening within the deeper moisture axis. Otherwise mainly dry
weather will prevail as weakening shortwave outruns the deeper
moisture axis followed by rising heights overnight. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected with lows upper 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Thursday...
Upper level ridge builds northward into New Eng as surface high pres
remains across the region. Large scale subsidence will promote dry
conditions, but enough lingering moisture for sct-bkn strato-cu
developing. So a mix of sun and clouds with warming temps as low
levels moderate. Highs will reach the low-mid 70s, but a bit cooler
along the coast where sea-breezes develop.
Thursday night...
High pres remains in control as it gradually shifts east of New Eng.
Another dry night with light winds but patchy stratus and fog may
develop. Lows will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights:
* Increased cloud cover on Friday, followed by showers late evening
into early Saturday morning.
* Turning dry and seasonable for Saturday afternoon and again
Sunday.
* Rain chances return Monday, followed by noticeably cooler weather.
Friday through Sunday...
The mid-level ridge shifts east on Friday with a broad trough coming
in from the west. Winds aloft are from the southwest and will bring
up the humidity and increase clouds for Friday. Although it is a dry
day, do think there will be more clouds than sun. Did trend the
highs a little cooler than the previous forecast as a result, but
still seasonable in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
There is still some uncertainty with the amplitude of the trough and
this will likely dictate the areal coverage of showers for Friday
night through early Saturday. The GFS and GEM are far more robust
than the ECMWF. NMB had little to no PROBs of precipitation south of
the Mass Pike on Saturday, so did deviate, added 'Slight Chance'
POPs. Nothing that will washout, generally a few hundredths of an
inch to a tenth of an inch. Rest of the weekend features mid-level
ridging and surface high pressure building in for the rest of the
weekend. Highs will trend slightly above normal, upper 60s and mid
70s Saturday, then normal Sunday in the mid 60s to 70F.
Monday and Tuesday...
A robust shortwave and surface cold front moves across the northeast
with a better chance for wetting rains on Monday. That said, it's
not a high probability that everyone will receive a healthy drink of
water. Global ensembles show a 10 to 20 percent chance of totals to
surpass 0.5", with the highest likelihood in northern Massachusetts.
Probabilities do increase when we set the threshold to 0.1" the GEFS
more conservative at 50 to 70 percent, while the ECMWF ENS at 70 to
90 percent. Drying out into Tuesday, though a mid-level low does
linger to the north and weak shortwaves pivot through and that could
lead to a spot shower on Tuesday.
Trending cooler, normal highs for early October are typically
between 65F and 70F, think Monday will fall just shy of that, but
cooler on Tuesday in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Where we will really
notice the air mass change is during our overnight lows. Monday
night into Tuesday lows flirt with the upper 30s across northwestern
Massachusetts while the coast remains in the upper 40s. Then Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning lows are mid 30s to mid 40s. Coolest
areas in northern Massachusetts; northern Worcester Hills and the
east slope of the Berkshires, these locations could see its first
frost of the season. But, would not receive 'Frost Advisory' as the
Frost/Freeze Program ended as of October 1st for those locations.
Tropical Weather...
The National Hurricane Center continues to forecast Hurricane Kirk
to become a major hurricane over the next 48 hours, potentially to a
category four hurricane by early Friday. While there are no direct
impacts to land, we could see larger waves radiate towards the coast
of southern New England, as the track of Kirk will follow the great
circle line. As we are outside of beach season, we would not issue a
high surf advisory or rip current statement, rather message the risk
of large waves in the AFD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update...
Through this evening... High confidence
Patchy IFR possible due to radiation fog at interior terminals
across eastern MA, mainly BED. Some scattered MVFR cigs possible
through daybreak across the Cape and Islands, otherwise, VFR
expected through the day. Winds shift to the SW today behind
cold frontal passage, but will be light, less than 10kt.
Thursday Night...Moderate confidence.
VFR, but MVFR along the south coast. Pockets of IFR to LIFR
possible due to radiation fog across the CT River Valley
(BAF/BDL/ORE) Light SW winds.
Friday... High Confidence
Any fog formation overnight will dissipate by mid morning
leading to VFR across the region. Afternoon cloud development
with cigs around 5000ft likely. Light winds from the S/SW,
though SE at Nantucket.
BOS TAF...Moderate confidence.
VFR. Light S/SSW winds through the period.
BDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
VFR conditions, though IFR/LIFR possible early Friday morning
due to patchy radiational fog. Light and variable winds
overnight and light SSW winds through the period.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday: VFR.
Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Thursday night...High confidence.
Extended the SCA through tonight for the outer SE waters for
persistent 5 ft easterly swell. Otherwise, expect 3-4 ft over outer
waters through Thu night with winds less than 15 kt.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.
Saturday Night through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Seas up to 5 ft.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ254-
255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Dooley
NEAR TERM...KJC/KS
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...KS
MARINE...KJC/Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 1:50 AM EDT----------------
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