NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 7, 3:00 AM GMT229
WTNT42 KNHC 070232
TCDAT2
Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024
Kirk is in the process of transitioning into an extratropical
cyclone. Satellite images show that the associated deep convection
is now confined to the northern side of the circulation and that the
inner core has been eroding. In addition, there appears to be some
frontal features beginning to form. The initial intensity is
lowered to 70 kt following a blend of the latest satellite intensity
estimates. The 34-kt wind radii have been tweaked on the system's
east side based on recent ASCAT data.
Extratropical transition should be complete on Monday when the
system moves over water temperatures in the low 20's C and into an
environment of nearly 40 kt of vertical wind shear. These
parameters will also cause steady weakening during the next few
days, and dissipation seems likely by day 4. The models are in
good agreement, and this forecast is closest to the latest GFS
solution.
Kirk is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial
motion is 045/22 kt. A turn to the east-northeast with a notable
increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days as
the system moves within the mid-latitude westerly flow. This
should take the extratropical low to the north of the Azores on
Tuesday and across western Europe on Wednesday.
Although Kirk is over the open ocean, it is still producing large
swells that could lead to life-threatening rip currents across
portions of the Caribbean, Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S., and
Atlantic Canada.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 38.6N 43.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 41.0N 39.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 08/0000Z 42.9N 33.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0000Z 43.8N 16.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 09/1200Z 45.6N 6.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0000Z 48.1N 3.7E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 7, 3:00 AM GMT---------------
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