IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 6:26 AM EDT133
FXUS63 KIWX 041026
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
626 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Little if any rain expected over the next 7 to 10 days.
* Above normal temperatures through Sunday will give way to slightly
cooler conditions by early next week.
* Elevated fire risk for brush and field fires Sunday afternoon due
to dry, mild and breezy conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024
A progressive pattern will result in a couple of frontal passages
this forecast period, but nothing on the way to alleviate drought
conditions across the area over the next week.
A low amplitude short wave in primarily zonal flow pattern will
continue to shift across the southern Great Lakes this morning.
Pocket of better low level moisture convergence across southern Iowa
has been conducive for some scattered overnight convection across
these locations with lighter rain showers extending northeast into
east central Wisconsin along mid level frontal zone. Broad, low
amplitude nature of this pattern will not allow for much of an
opportunity for low level flow to advect higher low level
theta-e air across southern IA/west central IL northeastward,
and much of moisture return will be more mid level. The
combination of some weak mid level fgen with southeast sagging
mid level front and some mid level cooling with the short wave
could be enough coupled with fairly steep mid level lapse rates
for a few showers across NW Indiana into SW Lower MI this
morning. This will likely be more of a sprinkle setup with dry
subcloud layer persisting, and any measurable rain amounts
likely only a hundredth or two across far western portions of
the area. Highs today should range from low 70s NW to mid-upper
70s southeast, and will depend on timing of decreasing cloud
trend this afternoon.
Quiet conditions are expected tonight as a 1028 mb high drifts
across the Great Lakes into Saturday morning. Light winds and
relatively dry low level airmass should allow for sharp temp drops
early evening, but temps should level out overnight as a modest
southeast gradient and weak low level warm advection begins.
Easterly flow associated with Great Lakes anticyclone could allow
low level flow trajectories favorable for some patchy fog across
south central Lower Michigan early Saturday morning, but
confidence is low in this scenario.
Saturday will feature continued low level warm advection and a
possibility of reaching near 80 across the west for max temps.
An initial strong low level inversion Saturday morning will give
way to mixed layer depths to around 5k feet that should support
afternoon gusts to around 25 mph across western portions of the
forecast area.
A stronger upper short wave still looks to approach the western
Great Lakes Saturday night. Strongest upper forcing with this short
wave will just skirt southern Great Lakes late Saturday night into
early Sunday. Low level moisture transport will increase during this
time, particularly along and north of the US 6 corridor where
slightly better frontal convergence may aid low level moisture
pooling. Given above factors have not strayed far from previous
forecast thinking in low chance PoPs across the north for
Saturday night. Confidence in thunder is low, but given
relatively steep mid level lapse rates and slightly cooler mid
level profiles across Lower MI, cannot rule out an isolated
storm.
Cold front will progress across the area early Sunday, but may hang
back into the early-mid afternoon south of the US-24 corridor
farther divorced from the stronger mid-upper level forcing. Greater
confidence in convective initiation still appears to be east of the
local area in proximity to better low level moisture axis Sunday
afternoon but will maintain low PM chance PoPs far southeast.
Sunday also still appears to feature some increase in fire
weather concerns. Gusty post-frontal winds in the 20 to 30 mph
range, relatively mild conditions, and sharp low level dry air
advection behind the front may pose some fire weather issues.
This concern would center on finer field fuels with an increased
potential of brush and field fires.
Transition to below normal temps is in store early next week
behind this front, with no notable precip chances on the horizon
through this forecast valid period. Temps should moderate back
to seasonable levels in the Wed-Thu timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024
A cold front arrives early this morning. The dry air at the surface
should act to suppress any measureable precipitation. The dry air
will also keep flight conditions in VFR. Sustained winds stay around
or less than 10 kts and gusts should stay less than 15 kts. It won't
take long for these winds to acquire a northerly component
today.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Marsili
AVIATION...Roller
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 6:26 AM EDT---------------
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