NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 5, 4:00 PM CDT351
WTNT44 KNHC 052046
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
Scatterometer data around midday confirmed that the circulation of
the depression was well-defined, and it also revealed peak winds of
35 kt. Based on that data, the depression was upgraded to Tropical
Storm Milton a few hours ago. The scatterometer data showed that
the center was embedded within the area of cold cloud tops, but the
area of tropical-storm-force winds was small. The overall structure
has not changed much since that time, and the initial intensity
remains 35 kt for this advisory.
Given that the system is still in its development stage, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 020/3 kt. Milton is not expected to
move much through tonight, but it should begin to move eastward to
east-northeastward on Sunday as a shortwave trough drops southward
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. On Monday, Milton should begin
to track a little faster toward the east or east-northeast as it
moves ahead of another mid-latitude trough approaching the
southeastern United States. This trough is expected to cause Milton
to further accelerate northeastward by Tuesday night with the center
approaching the west coast of Florida. The overall track guidance
envelope has nudged northward this cycle and it should also be noted
that there remains large along-track or timing differences in the
various dynamical models. The updated official forecast is slightly
north of the previous track and is a little slower to be in better
agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids. Users are
again reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at
the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150
miles.
Milton is within favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions for
strengthening. The scatterometer data indicated that the radius of
maximum was around 20 n mi, and with the expected low vertical wind
shear conditions, steady to rapid strengthening appears likely
during the next few days. The official intensity forecasts calls
for Milton to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, and a major
hurricane by 72 hours. The regional hurricane models continue to
be quite aggressive in intensifying Milton. For now, the NHC
intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids, but
upward adjustments could be required if the dynamical hurricane
models continue their trends. Regardless of the exact details of
the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple
life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula next week.
Key Messages:
1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week.
2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.
3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 92.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 23.1N 91.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 23.8N 89.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 87.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 27.7N 83.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 30.4N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 5, 4:00 PM CDT---------------
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