IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 1:32 AM EDT715
FXUS63 KIWX 040532
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
132 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Little if any rain expected over the next 7 to 10 days.
* Above normal temperatures through Sunday will give way to slightly
cooler conditions by early next week.
* Elevated fire risk for brush and field fires Sunday afternoon due
to dry, mild and breezy conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
A low amplitude shortwave trough will propagate east through the
western and central Great Lakes tonight into Friday. This will allow
an associated frontal boundary, currently draped from the Central
Plains northeast to northern lower MI, to slowly sink south and
weaken through the local area late tonight into early Friday
afternoon. A low level theta-e ridge, and more focused moisture
convergence, will remain locked up well to the west across
IL/MO/IA. Elevated fgen/moisture may survive into western
portions of our forecast area Friday morning with non-zero
chances for a few sprinkles or very light showers, though
lack of forcing and a dry sub-cloud layer precludes anything
more than a silent 10 PoP at this time. Slight cooler (near
normal) with clearing skies post-frontal Friday afternoon-night.
Temps recover nicely then into Saturday thanks to ample
sunshine and return flow on the backside of high pressure.
A stronger upper level shortwave and cold front still on target to
move through later Saturday night into Sunday. More prominent pre-
frontal forcing on the nose of an EML may clip our far northern
zones Sunday morning where low rain chances were retained. Re-
development along the primary cold front does look to be east of the
area by Sunday afternoon-evening with the focus turning to a
potential fire weather risk as RH's drop into the 20s/30s with post-
frontal cold advection pushing westerly gusts to 15-25 knots.
Cooler/seasonable temperatures return behind this system into
early next week on the backside of a developing northeast CONUS
longwave trough.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024
A cold front arrives early this morning. Any initial winds not out
of the north quickly acquire that direction even out in front of the
boundary. This, in addition to the dry air at the surface, should
act to suppress any measureable precipitation. The dry air will also
keep flight conditions in VFR. Sustained winds stay around or less
than 10 kts and gusts should stay less than 15 kts.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Roller
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 1:32 AM EDT---------------
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