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362 FXUS64 KLIX 050920AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA420 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024Rain has backed off for now. But there will be some ebb and flow with the moisture. The disturbance that was over the NW Caribbean has moved into the SE gulf and should be in the east gulf later today and taking up a lot of real estate over the NE and eastern gulf by Sun. There will also be some pulsing of this area as well over the next few days. Some of this activity will get caught in the synoptic easterly flow bringing some shower activity back to our shorelines by Sun. Some of these could make their way inland and with that in mind, we have left some precip coverage for Sun, but not much. This disturbed area over the eastern gulf will be well away from the main character located in the southern gulf. The hurricane center has this area(southern gulf) as Invest 92L and has an 80% chance of becoming a trop cyclone over 7 days and 50% over 48 hours. The strong easterly flow from the FL coastal bend will begin to heighten tide levels today and by high tide each cycle(just after midnight) we should see these levels high enough to cause some nuisance flooding along the normal coastal areas. The lowest secondary roads should be the only ones affected so we have posted a coastal flood advisory for eastern facing shorelines. As the disturbance gets wrapped up over the southern gulf and starts to move east, it should be capable of keeping a strong dynamic fetch up the west coast of FL then westward into our shores as well over the next few days keeing these tide levelsabnormally high.&&.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024This dynamic fetch over the eastern half of the gulf should keep these tide levels higher than normal through Tue morning even though we will get NE winds as the gulf system moves east past 90W. But as the front moves out over the gulf by Tue morning or later, these levels will back off quickly and we should be able to lower these headlines. It is this cold front and attendant upper troughing moving through late Mon into early Tue that keeps our area well away from this tropical system. Again, it is always good to keep up with the latest on this since this is just a fcast. This front is not really cold but it will be noticed. There is some cool air with it but most noteable is the dry air with it. Temps will drop into the 50s and 60s by Mon night as the front is moving through and 80-85F for highs Tue. This will repeat for Wed as well. This will feel very nice and it will result in atleast my home cooking gumbo. After this front moves through there is not a lot on the horizon at this time. But this is typical October for our area.&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024Some IFR cigs north and MVFR south will all climb to VFR by mid morning today. Some cigs could fall again to MVFR tonight but will also climb or dissipate after sunrise Sun. The best chances of any RA will be along the coast but even those chances will be relatively low.&&.MARINE...Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024E winds will remain through the weekend while steadily rising. By Sunday into the start of the new work week, east to NE winds of 25kt could be produced by a broad sfc low over the gulf interacting with strong high pressure moving in from the north. These winds could be slighlty enhanced by a tropical cyclone that is expected to form and move eastward through the central/southern gulf. Since winds should be in the 15-20kt range later this morning, we will bring up advisory flags that will remain through at least Sun night. Overall sea heights could be higher Sun night through at least Monday night with the contribution of swell depending on the strength of the tropical cyclone expected to develop. A cold front will move to or through the coastal waters Tue morning or later in the day with northerly winds continuing. Numerous showers and some thunderstorms will also occur through the weekend into the new work week. The hurricane center has hatched the area over the gulf with a 50% chance of developing a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and 80% over the next 7 days.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 85 66 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 88 71 92 70 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 83 70 87 68 / 10 0 0 0 MSY 83 74 87 73 / 20 0 0 0 GPT 82 71 86 68 / 20 0 0 0 PQL 85 71 88 69 / 20 10 10 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Monday for LAZ069-070-076-078.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Monday for MSZ086.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....TEAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
