ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 3:35 AM EDT181
FXUS61 KILN 050735
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
335 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue through tonight as high pressure
pushes across the Great Lakes. A few showers and thunderstorms
will be possible on Sunday in eastern parts of the area as a
cold front moves through the region. Dry conditions will return
for the remainder of next week as high pressure builds across
most of the United States.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Tranquil conditions reside locally once again, with just a
FEW/SCT 7-9kft clouds lingering about far SW/W parts of the
local area. Elsewhere, mainly clear skies have evolved once
again amidst light/calm winds. Some very patchy river valley fog
is likely across parts of N KY, the Ohio River, and the lower
Scioto Valley toward daybreak, but the visibility reductions
should be confined primarily to the river valleys. Widespread
overland fog is not expected.
High pressure will drift E of the OH Vly through the day today,
allowing for return/southerly flow to become established into
tonight. Mostly sunny to sunny skies are on tap through the
daytime, which will help temps reach into the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Quiet conditions continue right into the short term period, with
temps generally a few degrees warmer tonight than has been the
case the past several overnight periods. This is owing to the
light southerly flow, which will gradually pick up a bit toward
daybreak ahead of the approaching front.
The short term period is likely to offer the lone chance for any
real/impactful weather through the entirety of the next week,
and even so, the storm chances are expected to be confined to a
relatively small spatial/temporal scale late Sunday afternoon.
A fairly strong front will progress through the region during
the day on Sunday, with good LL moisture ahead of it,
characterized by sfc dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. The
front should be very close to, and approximately parallel to,
the I-71 corridor by about 18z, where CI is expected to evolve
immediately along/ahead of the SE-advancing frontal boundary. As
such, SHRA/TSRA chances should be highest E of I-71 (especially
into central/south-central OH and NE KY) into late
afternoon/early evening, with an uptick in coverage by 21z
across the ESE third/quarter or so of the ILN FA. These storms
will be forming in an environment characterized by a sufficient
(albeit narrow) corridor of richer LL moisture with modest
LL/deep-layer speed shear/wind fields and supportive ML lapse
rates (~7C) as well. There should be at least /some/
organization to the storms along the leading edge of the front,
with a non-zero potential for a strong to severe storm or two
into late afternoon. The main uncertainty at this juncture is
just how quickly (how far W) CI occurs and whether the
storms/front move out of the local area too quickly before storm
maturation/peak intensity. Nevertheless, at this juncture, the
conditional local severe threat would likely be maximized within
a corridor from Fairfield to Adams Counties in OH and points to
the SE (including Lewis Co KY). This low end potential should
be most pronounced between about 20z-23z before the front (and
the storms) move out of the ILN FA further into the evening.
Should it become more apparent that storm intensity should peak
while still in the local area, a mention of a few strong to
severe storms in the HWO may be needed for 6-8 counties or so.
Temps on Sunday will be quite warm by seasonal standards, into
the lower to mid 80s for many spots. However, there will be a
plateauing, or even a few degree drop, by mid/late afternoon in
the post-frontal environment near/W of I-71, with temps dipping
into the lower to mid 70s for the NW third or so of the ILN FA
by 21z.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
After the front passes Sunday evening, temperatures will drop to the
mid 40s overnight, with daytime highs on Monday only reaching the
mid 60s. High pressure builds behind the front and deep northwest
flow aloft will keep a cold influx of air over the Ohio Valley
through at least Wednesday. Highs through this time should range
from 65-70. Overnight lows with clear skies and light winds will
generally range from 40-45. Beginning Thursday, upper heights will
see a modest increase, and surface flow will lose its northerly
component. After Thursday, heights will see a more steady increase
and surface flow turns southerly with high pressure moving east of
the CWA.
This will mark a slow rise in temperatures each successive day and
nighttime period through the end of the forecast. Highs Thursday
near 70 will rise to the mid-upper 70s by Saturday. Likewise, lows
Thursday night will warm to the mid 50s in the western CWA, then
upper 40s to low 50s Friday night and low 50s Saturday night.
A dry and mostly sunny/clear period is expected for the majority of
the extended forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period everywhere,
with the lone exception being some MVFR, or brief IFR, VSBYs at
KLUK in the several hour period around daybreak due to river
valley BR. However the setup for such VSBY reductions is not as
favorable as was the case for the past several mornings, so
confidence in this occurring is still somewhat low.
Patches of 7-9kft clouds continue to percolate about W/SW
portions of the region, with the expectation for this SCT deck
to slowly drift to the E more into wrn parts of the local area
toward daybreak before eventually decreasing in coverage late in
the day. This has resulted in the addition of some better cloud
cover into the fcst, mainly for wrn sites of
KCVG/KLUK/KDAY/KILN through the daytime before skies trend
clearer late in the period once again.
Light NE winds will go more easterly around daybreak before
becoming southerly around 5-8kts for the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 3:35 AM EDT---------------
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