NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 5, 1:00 PM AST759
WTNT43 KNHC 050837
TCDAT3
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024
A 0552 UTC SSMIS microwave pass showed that Leslie still has a
well-defined mid-level eye, and deep convection continues to burst
over the center. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are both
T4.0/65 kt, while objective numbers are overall a bit higher than
that. Therefore, Leslie's intensity is now estimated to be 70 kt.
Leslie continues to move slowly west-northwestward (290/6 kt), with
the cyclone still located along the southern periphery of the
subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to remain entrenched and
strengthen over the eastern Atlantic during the next several days,
which should cause Leslie to move northwestward and accelerate a
bit by Tuesday and Wednesday. The NHC forecast is close to a blend
of the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids, and nearly lies on top of the
previous prediction.
The intensity forecast is the most challenging part of this
advisory. Deep-layer shear is relatively low at the moment and
should remain so for the next 24 hours or so. This is the period
where the NHC forecast shows additional strengthening, and is close
to the statistical-dynamical models near the top end of the
guidance. Increased shear, combined with Leslie potentially moving
over Kirk's cold wake, could cause some weakening after 24 hours.
All of the intensity models support this scenario, however they
differ significantly in how much weakening will occur. The NHC
forecast continues to show Leslie maintaining hurricane status
through day 5, mainly following the SHIPS model. However, the IVCN
and HCCA consensus aids, as well as several of the hurricane
regional models, suggest that Leslie could weaken below hurricane
intensity by 48 hours. Downward adjustments to the intensity
forecast may be required in future advisories if this trend
continues.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 10.7N 34.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 11.2N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 12.1N 36.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 13.2N 38.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 14.6N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 15.9N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 17.4N 43.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 20.2N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 22.3N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 5, 1:00 PM AST---------------
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