IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 4:11 AM EDT976
FXUS63 KIWX 020811
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
411 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry and unseasonably mild through Sunday with highs around
70 to 80.
- Cool nights into early next week with lows mainly in the 40s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
The cold front that moved through yesterday preceded much drier
air spreading into the region. Virtually no chance for fog
early this morning as dew points tumble into the 30s and lower
40s. Tranquil weather is expected for the most part into early
next week. There are two upper level systems that will skirt the
forecast area riding on the top of an expansive subtropical
ridge. These systems have the potential to bring showers and
possibly storms during their corresponding arrival times of
Friday and Sunday. Have generally preferred the GFS with
handling isentropic fields in synoptic patterns like this. The
GFS brings a small window for showers or sprinkles per 305K
surface from 18Z (2pm EDT) Friday to 8pm Friday evening. Shallow
cloud saturation, a large dry sub-cloud layer and mediocre
isentropic lift at this point favors no more than sprinkles.
Given the ongoing dry forecast have opted to keep Friday dry.
Somewhat different setup Sunday as an Elevated Mixed Layer with
700/500mb lapse rates approaching 9C/Km arrive. Have greatly
lowered rain chances, especially earlier in the day as a massive
cap associated with the EML is over the area. Research has shown
in a highly capped EML environment the best chance for storms
is most often late in the day (after 21Z/5 pm EDT). This is in
line with both the EC and GFS. Gut feeling Sunday will be
completely dry. Concern also with drier air spreading into the
area the area may provide the potential for field, grass and
brush fires as fine dead fuels dry out and as heavy machinery
continue during the fall harvest.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
Relatively few aviation weather concerns this forecast period.
North winds around 5 knots at KFWA will continue to diminish to
light and variable overnight as a low level ridge axis builds in
for the west. Light and variable winds should persist through
after daybreak Wednesday, before becoming light south-southwest
as the low level ridge axis shifts off to the east. Some sct-bkn
cirrus early this morning will thin out after daybreak, with
mainly clear skies through the remainder of the period under the
influence of deep layer subsidence.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 4:11 AM EDT---------------
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