CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 1:02 AM EDT700
FXUS61 KCLE 030502
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
102 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through Thursday night. A mainly dry cold front
passes through the southern Great Lakes Friday. High pressure
Saturday. Strong cold front Sunday with cooler air early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
1:01 AM EDT Update...
Most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and
model guidance. However, used the latest NBM 50th percentile
forecast guidance for updating our low temperature forecast for
this morning. Radiational cooling has been occurring at a
slightly faster rate than depicted in the previous forecast Expect
that to remain the case through daybreak this morning amidst
clear to mainly clear sky, weak or calm surface winds, and
limited low-level moisture on the synoptic scale. The
expectation of cooler low temperatures means the potential for
patchy radiation fog development around daybreak this morning
has increased along/near most of the eastern and southern border
of our CWA. In addition, localized river valley steam fog is
expected to develop by daybreak. Any fog will then dissipate via
diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer by mid-morning.
Previous Discussion...
High pressure builds into the southern Great Lakes, then drifts to
the east coast during the near term forecast period. Largely a low
RH column, so cloud cover will be limited overall through the
period. Good radiative cooling tonight, but the boundary layer is
too dry for fog to develop in the valleys. This, combined with the
low dewpoint air will bring lows in the 40s, to near 40F in the far
eastern portions of our NW PA counties, and low to mid 50s for the
lakeshore areas. 850mb temperatures rise into the lower teens for
Thursday, translating to lower to middle 70s for most of the area
as surface winds turn southwesterly. POPs zero for the period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly quiet weather is expected through the short term period.
A weak cold front will move east across the area on Friday,
though it appears the highest chances for any precipitation will
be found just northeast of the region across western NY as high
pressure quickly builds in from the west. Near to slightly
above average temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday
with highs in the low to mid- 70s and seasonable lows in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Slightly more active weather will arrive for the long term period as
a stronger cold front sweeps east across the region on Sunday. DESI
cluster analysis reveals some low joint probabilities of favorable
CAPE/Shear overlap for some stronger storms in the afternoon hours.
Forecast hodographs appear mainly long which would yield a wind
threat, though can't discount slight curvature in the lowest 3km to
support a rotating updraft or two. Will continue to monitor trends,
particularly in timing, as it appears the latest model guidance has
shifted the threat ever so slightly towards the east (i.e. trending
faster). Confidence is also low on the amount of low-level moisture
available as a tropical disturbance in the Gulf may stunt moisture
return northwards into the Upper OH Valley.
Behind the front, a much cooler air mas will arrive, characterized
by 850 mb temperatures falling between 0 and 2 degrees C. Do have
some low-PoPs across the snowbelt, though it appears trends would
favor more on the side of cloud cover versus precipitation given a
lack of mid-level moisture present. Apart from Sunday, below-average
temperatures are anticipated behind the cold front through
Wednesday, with highs in the 60s and perhaps even upper 50s across
far NW PA. Will need to monitor low temperature trends for Monday
and Tuesday nights with the NBM showing moderate probabilities of
minTs less than 37 degrees, particularly across inland areas.st
Ohio and 70% out east in Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. A pattern change is expected as this upper- level
trough brings in colder air. Highs in the 60s and low in the 40s
will make it feel more like October on Monday and Tuesday. Some
lingering lake effect rain showers may be possible downwind of
Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania on Monday
and Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Fair weather and mainly VFR expected through 06Z/Fri. At the
surface, our region remains along the western flank of a high
pressure ridge as a cold front approaches from the Upper Midwest
and western Great Lakes. Our regional surface winds trend calm
or light and variable through 12Z/Thurs. Thereafter, surface winds
trend S'erly to SW'erly around 5 to 10 knots. Localized river
valley steam fog formation is expected and localized radiation
fog formation is possible through ~12Z/Thurs. However, no TAF
sites are expected to be affected by fog. Any fog will dissipate
via daytime heating by 14Z/Thurs.
Outlook...Isolated rain showers with non-VFR possible Friday
night. Scattered thunderstorms and/or rain showers with non-VFR
possible this Sunday through Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
A mainly quiet marine period is in store through much of the weekend
with no headlines anticipated until late Sunday behind a strong cold
front. A weaker cold front will cross the lake on Friday which will
usher in north to northeast flow of near 15 knots, though think
waves should top out around 3 feet. Otherwise, southerly flow of 15
to 20 knots on Sunday will abruptly shift towards the northwest by
late Sunday into Monday behind a strong cold front, with winds
increasing to near 20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed late Sunday through much of Monday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/26
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Kahn
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 1:02 AM EDT---------------
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