NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 30, 1:00 AM AST209
WTNT42 KNHC 292045
TCDAT2
Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024
The system we have been monitoring in the eastern Tropical Atlantic
(AL90) has continued to become better organized throughout the day.
After an overnight deep convective burst, outer convective banding
has become better defined, noted by the most recent TAFB subjective
Dvorak fix of T2.0/30 kt. GOES-16 1-minute visible imagery also
shows that the circulation, which was more elongated this morning,
has become better defined on the western side, suggesting a
well-defined closed vortex now exists. Based on the above data,
advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Twelve this
afternoon, with an initial intensity of 30 kt.
The motion of the new depression currently appears to be westward at
270/8 kt. A prominent subtropical ridge to the north should continue
to steer the system generally westward to west-northwestward over
the next couple of days. After that time, this ridge becomes more
eroded by a mid-latitude trough on its western side, resulting in
the system gradually turning more poleward through the end of the
forecast. In general the guidance is pretty tightly clustered for
the first 48-60 h, with spread increasing a little more thereafter
related to how quickly the system turns poleward. The initial NHC
track forecast lies near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA), which favors the ECMWF track a little further west than the
GFS track.
For at least the next 2-3 days, vertical wind shear is expected to
remain low, mid-level moisture stays high, as the system remains
over 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. Yet, the current large
convective envelope of the system suggests it may take a day or so
for an inner-core to become established. Thus, the initial rate of
intensification is a bit slow, a little under the guidance for the
next 24 hours, but then becomes faster and ends up near the IVCN
consensus aid by 120 h. The initial NHC intensity forecast shows
TD12 becoming a hurricane in 60 h and a major hurricane in 5 days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 13.8N 32.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 13.9N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 14.2N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 14.5N 38.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 15.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 15.9N 41.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 17.4N 42.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 20.0N 45.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 22.5N 47.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 30, 1:00 AM AST---------------
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