PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 1, 7:42 AM EDT302
FXUS61 KPBZ 011142
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
742 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation chances continue through Wednesday morning with a
departing upper low and cold front. Clearer and drier conditions
return late week, aside from a chance of rain late Friday or
early Saturday along a weak cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers possible during the morning.
- A cold front begins to impact the Ohio Counties in the
afternoon.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Made some minor adjustments, mainly upward, to sky cover grids
for today, as overcast conditions are likely through the morning
before some minor improvement this afternoon. The forecast
overall remains on track.
As the upper low that has been over the region for the past few
days meanders across the forecast area, expect showers to
continue into the mid-morning hours.
The upper low will gradually pull to the east throughout the
day, tapering rain chances in the morning before shower
potential increases into the afternoon, largely a result of
heating and convergence ahead of a approaching cold front.
Coverage and totals will remain low with high confidence. With
mixing, some overcast decks may break out into the afternoon,
most likely in eastern Ohio. This may allow highs to get around
5 degrees above average in eastern Ohio, with more seasonable
highs elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and comfortable conditions are expected behind the cold
front.
- Dense fog is possible Wednesday night.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The cold front is expected to pass early Wednesday morning with
high confidence. Precipitation chances are highlighted along
the frontal axis which will mainly be over the east as it exits
by Wednesday afternoon. Showers are expected to be brief and
fast moving, with little to no additional precipitation
expected. The most noticeable change behind the cold front will
be lower humidity and clearing skies. This will leave Wednesday
quite comfortable.
Wednesday night, clear skies behind the cold front will allow
lows to get back to "seasonable levels" (aka much cooler than
what we have been seeing). Recent rains and efficient cooling
will likely result in fog formation. This will likely need
monitored as the conditions are right for dense fog.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Drier and clearer.
- Slight chance rain/clouds late Friday/early Saturday.
- Chance of rain/clouds late Sunday into Monday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
On Thursday, expect warmer temperatures and drier conditions to
persist through Friday associated with high pressure. Friday
evening, a weak trough is expected to move through the area
bringing a slight chance for some light showers in Western
Pennsylvania and Northern West Virginia. Once the weak trough
has passed to our northeast, expect slightly cooler temperatures
as another area of high pressure is expected to move into the
area.
On Sunday/Monday, a trough is expected to move through the
area. Models are showing that there is uncertainty regarding the
strength and timing of the trough which will impact how much
rain we observe. Once the trough has passed, expect cooler and
more seasonable temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings will linger through the morning as
upper level low pressure continues to linger. Scattered, mostly
non-restrictive showers east of PIT will also continue this
morning.
Minor ceiling improvement is possible this afternoon as diurnal
heating and low-level mixing allow some rises into the MVFR/IFR
range, but an approaching/crossing cold front will likely cause
another drop tonight, with IFR/LIFR levels likely. HREF IFR
probabilities are 60% or greater at most TAF sites by sunrise.
Scattered showers are expected, with a very small chance of
thunder that is not indicated in current TAFs.
.Outlook...
An air mass change after FROPA will offer dry weather and VFR
conditions by Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week,
save for possible overnight rounds of fog.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...CL/Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Lupo
AVIATION...CL/Lupo
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 1, 7:42 AM EDT---------------
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