JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 8:05 AM EDT976
FXUS63 KJKL 021205
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
805 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy dense fog in some locations early this morning.
- Areas of dense fog expected again late tonight into Thursday
morning.
- Aside from some patchy drizzle this morning, dry weather should persist
at least through Thursday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2024
Webcams indicate that the thicker fog has lifted off the valley
floors in many locations, though locally dense fog is still
affecting the southeastern ridgetops, as per airport observations
such as PBX and CPF. A few patches of dense fog are still to be
encountered in the typically most fog-prone valley locations as
well, as per reports from incoming dayshift NWS staff. Expect
lingering fog to lift into a low stratus deck between now and 11
AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2024
A mixture of fog and low stratus is found across most of eastern
Kentucky this morning as a weak cold front sags through the area.
Temperatures range from the upper 50s north up to the lower and
middle 60s further south and east. The combination of mostly clear
skies, light winds, and lingering low-level moisture has allowed
areas of fog to form across the Kentucky Coalfields, not only in
the valleys but also impacting many of the ridges as well. The
weak cold front is evident from weak biological radar returns and
surface observations, roughly extending from Paintsville to
Jackson to London line. Boundary layer mixing behind the front is
causing the radiation fog to dissipate or thin at most locations
as a trailing low stratus deck moves in. Model soundings and weak
radar returns suggest that some patchy drizzle is occurring with
this stratus.
Through the remaining pre-dawn hours, anticipate the frontal
boundary to continue pushing southeast and exit into Virginia after
5 AM. Anticipate that the fog, especially on valley bottoms, will
tend to thin or dissipate as the front arrives. However, expect
that the low stratus deck impinging on the higher hills and
mountains will lead to renewed visibility reductions on elevated
terrain through the mid-morning hours. This stratus deck may
produce patchy drizzle at some locations. Minimum temperatures
will bottom out around sunrise, ranging from the mid 50s to lower
60s.
The post-frontal low stratus will only slowly lift and erode from
the northwest during the daylight hours today as drier air gradually
works into our region on a northwest flow; in fact, counties
adjacent to the Virginia border may not see substantial clearing
until late this afternoon or evening. Patchy drizzle may linger
over the higher terrain near Virginia into the afternoon hours.
Temperatures will be cooler with highs mainly in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.
After a day of suppressed high temperatures, high pressure settles
in at the surface and aloft tonight, setting up the ideal
combination of conditions (clear skies and light winds with
lingering low-level moisture) for widespread fog formation, even
impacting many of the ridges. Some of the fog could become dense
late in the night before likely lifting off the valleys floors.
Temperatures are forecast to be cooler, dipping into the upper 40s
in the coolest northern hollows ranging up to the mid 50s in
southern valleys and over thermal belt ridges.
Bright sunshine finally returns for the entire forecast area on
Thursday once the morning fog and any low stratus lift and
dissipate. Forecast highs range from the mid 70s north of the
Mountain Parkway up to the lower 80s in the broader river valleys
south of the Hal Rogers/KY-80 corridor.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2024
The latest model runs have an elongated ridge of high pressure in
place across the eastern CONUS, extending from extreme southeastern
Canada southwestward down the eastern seaboard and into the
southeaster CONUS and across the Gulf states. A trough of low
pressure aloft is also progged to be pushing across the northern
CONUS and through the Great Lakes, with a cold front extending from
it into the mid Mississippi Valley and into the south central
Plains, where it will meet up with an area of surface low pressure.
General troughing looks to be in place across the western CONUS,
with another ridge of high pressure diving southward out of south
central Canada and into the northern Plains and western Great Lakes
regions to begin the period. This pattern will shift quickly
eastward, as the upper trough moves into New England and the ridge
behind displaces it and settles over the region over the weekend. We
could see scattered rain showers across our area on Friday,
especially late in the day, as weak cold front moves through.
Once the front has passed to the area of the area, we should see dry
and pleasant weather over the weekend, as high pressure takes over.
Our next round of rain is set to arrive early Sunday evening, as
another more potent cold front and upper trough move through the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Rain chances should peak early Sunday
night, as the upper trough moves by to our north. A few showers may
persist across our eastern counties on Monday, as the surface front
gets hung up nearby. By mid afternoon on Monday, however, the front
should finally exit the area, giving way to another ridge of high
pressure. This second ridge will then bring dry but much cooler
weather to eastern Kentucky Monday night through Tuesday night, as
another Canadian air mass settles over the region for a bit.
Temperatures across our area will divided into two very different
regimes, with warm, above normal temperatures expected Friday
through Sunday, and well below normal readings on tap Monday through
Tuesday night. The warmest days could max out in the upper 70s and
lower 80s, while the end of the period could see daytime maxes
reaching only the mid to upper 60s. Nightly lows should fall mainly
into the 50s the first few nights. By the end of the period,
however, we could see of nights with lows in the low to mid 40s
around the area. The expected ridging will create ideal conditions
for modest ridge valley temperatures differences several nights. No
weather hazards expected across the area at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2024
VLIFR to MVFR conditions were reported across the forecast area at
TAF issuance. Widespread low stratus and fog will gradually lift
this morning and erode from the northwest, yielding a slow
improvement to VFR areawide. Fog is expected to develop again
tonight and lead to significant visibility reductions to IFR or
worse after 6z. Lastly, winds will remain variable around 5 knots
or less through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 8:05 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
