BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 10:11 PM EDT218
FXUS61 KBOX 290211
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1011 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in keeping southern New England mostly dry
through the start of next week. The next chance of rain arrives
Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front moves through the
region. High pressure will bring a return to dry and seasonable
weather later in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No major changes to the forecast at this hour. Marine stratus
continues to move onshore, but remains broken up north of the MA
pike. Dewpoint depressions are still 4F-8F apart which will
limit fog potential until later overnight.
Previous Discussion...
Highlights:
* Partly sunny conditions and comfortable temperatures this
afternoon gives way to lower clouds and patchy fog overnight.
Overall, no significant changes to the near term forecast, it
has been a fairly quiet weather day across the region with high
pressure building in to our north, but a quasi-stationary
boundary south has kept a spot shower or two in the forecast.
Rest of the afternoon can expect continued quiet and comfortable
conditions with temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Overnight a mid-level will deamplify and moisture to spill into
the southwest most parts of southern New England, kept mention
of "Iso. Rain". In addition, we are keeping our eyes on a bank
of low stratus over the Gulf of Maine, which is drifting to the
southwest and should reach the coast around sunset.
Clouds increase east to west overnight with patchy ground fog. At
this time, do not expect fog to become widespread. Light winds and
overnight lows in the low and middle 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
* Sunday features more clouds than sun and cooler with highs in the
60s to 70F.
Lower stratus to start Sunday morning, this may take time to erode
as there is little mixing within the boundary layer. Think that
these low clouds could linger through mid to late morning before we
are left with a deck of mid-level clouds. Given the increase in sky
cover and continued onshore wind, temperatures will take a hit and
are expected to be around 5 degrees cooler Sunday afternoon, many
spots are in the 60s with a few locals topping off around 70
degrees. Given abundant low level moisture, a spot shower can not be
ruled out, though most of the day features dry conditions.
Clouds remain overnight with fairly light and variable winds. Could
have patchy ground fog across the interior. Low temperatures are low
to middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* Dry and pleasant weather continues through early next week.
* Next chance of rain showers comes Tue night and Wed, followed by
more dry weather to end the week.
Details...
Tricky mid level pattern to start out this portion of the forecast.
The remnants of Helene become nearly vertically stacked over the
bottom half of the atmosphere. While this is a sign the remnants
will weaken, it also means any movement will be slow. Expecting the
remnants of Helene to pass by our region sometime during the middle
of next week, mainly to our south. It appears that we get under a
more zonal flow late next week, which brings the timing of features
into question.
At this time, it looks like our window for showers will be sometime
between late Tuesday into Wednesday night. Not looking like a
washout, but more of a prolonged period of hit-or-miss showers. High
pressure should return late in this period, providing another round
of drier conditions.
Near to slightly below normal temperatures for early October
anticipated.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Low stratus advects west, many terminals outside of the CT River
Valley should fall to IFR, with pockets of LIFR possible. The
terminals in the CT River Valley have MVFR CIGs. With a boundary
to the southwest of the region, a spot shower is not out of the
question. Winds are light from the northeast 5 to 8 knots.
Tomorrow...Moderate confidence in trends, but low confidence in
timing.
IFR/MVFR CIGs will improve to MVFR/VFR generally 12z to 15z, though
not overly confident with how quickly the low CIGs clear across
the interior. Trending towards a low-end VFR by 18z. Winds are east
to northeast less than 10 knots.
Tomorrow Night...Low confidence.
MVFR and low-end VFR CIGs. Light and variable winds.
BOS TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF.
MVFR CIGs fall to IFR toward midnight, and should remain there
overnight. Improvements to MVFR early Sunday morning 10z/12z,
then to VFR 14z/16z. East to northeast winds for TAF period 8 to
12 knots.
BDL TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF.
Lowering CIGs overnight to a low-end VFR to MVFR between
04z/06z. Becoming VFR Sunday after 14z/16z. Light east to
northeast winds for the TAF period.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Sunday Night...High confidence.
Quasi-stationary boundary extending west to east, south of Long
Island to Nantucket, along this boundary spot rain showers are
possible. Breezy easterly winds across the southern most waters,
gusts around 25 knots and seas approaching 5 foot. Did include
the waters south of Block Island in a S.C.A. through tonight,
but there is a possibility that could be extended through late
Sunday morning.
On Sunday, seas on the southern ocean waters subside 3 to 4
foot, while eastern waters are 2 to 3 foot. Mostly dry day with
low chance for an isolated shower.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Belk/Dooley/KP
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Dooley
MARINE...Belk/Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 10:11 PM EDT----------------
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