IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 1, 1:43 AM EDT311
FXUS63 KIND 010543
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
143 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog late tonight into Tuesday morning
- Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday afternoon
- Mainly dry conditions with nearly seasonable temperatures to open
up October
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024
Watching the potential for fog development tonight across much of
Central Indiana. Latest satellite imagery and observations show
skies finally beginning to clear as the remnants of Helene and the
stubborn upper level low finally weaken and push east. A weakening
pressure gradient, clearing skies, and a very moist boundary layer
will allow for good conditions for radiational cooling and fog
development. Patchy fog has already been reported within the last
hour, mainly in normal fog spots in South Central IN and the Wabash
River Valley with Bloomington reporting 3 mile visibility. Expect
conditions to deteriorate overnight, with the greatest potential for
dense fog in South Central IN, Eastern IN, and the Wabash River
Valley. A Special Weather Statement has been posted for all of
Central Indiana for the potnetial for dense fog and hazardous travel
conditions through around 8-9am. Conditions are expected to
gradually improve during the mid to late morning hours as the
surface heats up and northwest winds increase.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024
Rest of This Afternoon...
Isolated to scattered showers will continue across mainly the
southeastern half of central Indiana thanks to a slowly exiting
upper low. With an inversion aloft, showers should remain shallow.
Will keep some low PoPs across the southeast half to two-thirds of
the area.
Tonight...
Uncertainty remains higher than desired regarding cloud cover this
evening. Breaks were slow to form early in the afternoon, but some
additional breaks should develop with better mixing. Just how much
so remains the uncertain part given the slow start.
Loss of heating this evening will aid in partial clearing of any
cumulus that filled in the holes from earlier in the day. Will allow
for some partial clearing but remain on the pessimistic side this
evening for now.
This cloud cover will factor into fog potential overnight. Winds
will become light to calm. Low level moisture will linger. If skies
were to clear, fog would likely be widespread. Also working against
widespread fog development will be some turbulent mixing above the
ground, which would favor stratus development.
Given the expected cloud cover and the potential stratus
development, will stick with patchy to areas of fog wording with a
mention of locally dense fog possible. Will have to monitor this
evening and make adjustments as needed.
Low temperatures will be in the lower 60s.
Tuesday...
Fog will mix out into some clouds on Tuesday morning. An approaching
cold front will bring more clouds with it on Tuesday. Thus expect a
partly cloudy day overall.
The front won't have much convergence along it as winds will already
be northwest ahead of it. Upper support isn't impressive either.
However, there looks to be enough forcing for a few showers, mainly
across the eastern half in the afternoon when some weak instability
will build. Will have some low PoPs there at that time.
High temperatures will be mainly in the middle and upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024
The long term period will be mainly quiet with relatively seasonable
temperatures. Surface high pressure will slowly track across the
area behind a cold front exiting to the SE prompting dry weather
through at least the end of the week. A broad upper wave with
surface low then looks to move in during the weekend which may
bring some precipitation chances. Models show that there likely
won't be much moisture to work with as a bulk of it will be
retained much further south and near the Gulf. There is still some
uncertainty for precipitation chances this weekend given various
model solutions. For now, it looks as though the best chances for
slight PoPs will be on Sunday along the main cold front with this
system.
Temperatures will hover near normal through the long term with highs
in the 70s and lows near 50.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
Impacts:
- Potential for IFR to LIFR cigs and vis due to fog this morning
- NW winds gusting 15 to 20 kt this afternoon and evening
Discussion:
Fog has developed across most of central Indiana as of 05z.
Additional fog development is expected through morning. Lingering
stratus, around 5000ft agl, may inhibit fog to some extent.
Visibility may occasionally drop to under a mile at the terminals,
particularly LAF and BMG where fog has already formed. IFR to LIFR
conditions are possible where fog becomes particularly thick.
Fog is expected to gradually diminish after sunrise, before a cold
front sweeps in from the northwest. Winds increase behind the front
and may gust to between 20-25kt out of the northwest for a few
hours. An isolated shower may develop along the cold front but
coverage expected to be low enough to preclude the mention of VCSH
in the TAFs for now.
Surface high pressure settles in by tonight bringing clear skies and
light winds.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CM
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Eckhoff
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 1, 1:43 AM EDT---------------
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