PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 30, 6:10 AM CDT490
FXUS63 KPAH 301110 AAB
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
610 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy and locally dense fog will be possible this morning and
then particularly on Tuesday morning depending exactly on how
quickly higher level clouds dissipate.
- Lower 80s returns to the forecast by Tuesday, then a cold
front's passage cools us into the 70s Wednesday, before more
80s return to finish the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024
Main concern for the next few hours will be for fog potential if
we can get any consistent breaks in the mid and lower level
stratus. If we are going to get significant fog formation before
morning it appears most likely along the Pennyrile region where
cloud cover has been less and dewpoint depressions are lower.
This afternoon vertical mixing should break up the overcast
some, particularly by the afternoon. It should be warmer than
what we have seen the last few days. Fog potential looks a
little better on Tuesday morning as there is a better chance
that subsidence behind a shortwave trough over AL/MS/GA
dissipates the residual stratus deck enough to get stronger
radiational cooling. A predominantly dry cold front moves
through Tuesday which should finally clear the region more
definitively from the soupy mess of the remnants of Hurricane
Helene.
Humidity starts to return via some southwesterly winds by
Thursday. The GFS is stronger with a trough and front that moves
through Friday night into Saturday giving us very low-end precip
chances. ECMWF members hold this off more til after the weekend.
It looks relatively benign regardless, with just some subtle
temperature differences the end result. We will see how it
evolves this week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024
Patchy fog will remain possible for an hour or so after sunrise,
giving way to MVFR ceilings through the morning. Expect VFR
conditions this afternoon and this evening before IFR conditions
likely return in the form of fog for the late overnight hours
Monday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 30, 6:10 AM CDT---------------
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