LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 12:08 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...102
FXUS64 KLIX 290508
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1208 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Quiet conditions will persist through the remainder of the
weekend. Upper low will shift only slightly eastward through
Sunday with northwesterly winds resulting in continued dry
conditions across the local area.
Expect morning lows in the low to mid 60s across northern areas,
and in upper 60s to lower 70s in southern areas. Afternoon highs
will flirt with or rise just higher than 90 degrees, but will
still feel reasonably comfortable given dewpoints in the low to
mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
The upper low will finally start to lift northeastward Monday as a
northern stream trough moves into the Great Lakes region. This
trough also quickly lifts northeastward into Canada, leaving a
relatively zonal pattern across the conus by late Wednesday. All
guidance is in fairly good agreement regarding this scenario.
Beyond Wednesday, lots of questions arise and there aren't a lot
of answers to come by yet. Most available guidance suggests a
disturbance will form on the eastern periphery of the Central
American Gyre over the western Caribbean by late next week and
that it will initially move northwestward into the southern Gulf.
However, at that point there is little if any clarity on how that
disturbance will evolve. For now, we acknowledge that yes,
several model forecasts predict a tropical cyclone of varying
intensity affecting *some portion* of the Gulf coast in *7-9
days*. However, the specifics of those model forecasts vary
widely and there is little, if any, skill in predicting details
such as exactly where the system might move, how strong it might
be, or what impacts it might bring at this lead time.
You will likely see numerous model forecasts posted on social
media or other outlets over the coming days. PLEASE remember that
these models will continue to struggle to narrow down specifics
until a more organized disturbance develops. We are still in the
peak of hurricane season and all residents should remain vigilant
in keeping an eye on the tropics, but we urge you not to focus on
any individual model forecasts. Instead, stay tuned to official
outlooks and forecast updates issued by NHC and local NWS offices.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
VFR conditions through the forecast. Winds will be light and VRB
outside of terminals right along the coast where winds will be
influenced by sea/lake/land breeze. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Under the influence of a weak pressure gradient and generally dry
air, benign conditions are expected to persist across the coastal
waters through at least Tuesday. Winds may pick up a bit on
Wednesday in response to an approaching front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 62 86 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 65 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 65 88 68 89 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 69 90 71 88 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 67 88 69 88 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 66 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...DM
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 12:08 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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