MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 30, 6:30 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...328
FXUS64 KMOB 301130
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
630 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024
Patchy fog with visibility reductions to MVFR to IFR thresholds
may briefly impact interior portions of southeast MS and southwest
AL through around 13Z this morning. VFR is otherwise expected to
prevail through the forecast period. Calm to light/variable winds
early this morning will generally become W/SW at 5-10 knots across
the region late this morning into this afternoon. /21
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 453 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024
Mild and dry weather conditions persist across our forecast area
early this morning. Patchy fog may develop over interior portions of
southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama through the early
morning hours, but so far the lower visibility values have remained
to the north of our forecast area. Any patchy fog that develops
should lift by around 8 AM or so.
An upper level low over the vicinity of Kentucky and West Virginia
early this morning will open and slowly lift northeastward through
tonight, while a trailing upper level trough axis continues to
extend into Mississippi and northern Louisiana. A weak surface
trough axis will meanwhile remain oriented over our forecast area
through this afternoon. Despite the presence of deep layer moisture
with precipitable water values up to around 1.5 inches over our
forecast area along and ahead of these features today, an overall
lack of ascent should preclude meaningful rain chances. We will
maintain a dry forecast today. The upper level trough axis will
gradually shift eastward across our region tonight into Tuesday.
Associated deep layer moisture and ascent look to be rather
unimpressive along this feature, so dry weather conditions should
continue through Tuesday afternoon. Highs today and Tuesday should
continue to range in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows tonight
are forecast to range in the mid to upper 60s over interior areas
and around 70 to the mid 70s along the immediate coast and beaches.
A LOW risk of rip currents is expected along area beaches through
Tuesday. /21
SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 453 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024
Upper troughing across the region lifts out into the Atlantic
early in the period. After this, a southern stream shortwave
looks to move across the south- central U.S., gradually
approaching the forecast area late in the period Thursday into the
weekend.
We continue to monitor the potential for another area of low
pressure that may develop in the western Caribbean or southern
Gulf of Mexico late week. The evolution of this feature and a
couple weak embedded shortwaves aloft that move across the
forecast area will be the primary influence for the forecast late
week into the weekend. A deep plume of tropical moisture
characterized by 2 to 2.5 inch PWATs pushes into the forecast
area Thursday through Saturday, regardless of any tropical
development in the gulf. Weak upper level difluence will allow for
an appreciable increase in rain chances Thursday into Friday,
perhaps lingering into Saturday. A majority of the forecast
guidance keeps a bulk of the heavier precipitation near the coast,
closer to the strongest forcing for ascent in the region. It's
still early to get into any specifics, but given the deep tropical
airmass in place along with the expected lifting mechanisms to
generate slow moving showers and storms, localized heavy rainfall
may occur across portions of the forecast area. A cold front will
begin to move into the region by Sunday as surface high pressure
quickly builds into the eastern CONUS, likely helping to temper
rain chances towards the end of the forecast period.
Temperatures will remain above normal for Wednesday into Thursday
featuring highs in the upper 80's to near 90 and lows in the lower
to middle 60's inland and upper 60's to near 70 along the coast.
As we head into Friday and the rest of the weekend, increased
cloud cover and precipitation will lead to cooler afternoon
temperatures slightly below normal in the lower to middle 80's.
Lows will be a touch warmer Thursday night in the middle to upper
60's inland and lower 70's nearer the coast, but fall back to the
lower to middle 60's inland and upper 60's nearer the coast for
the weekend as drier, cooler air begins to work its way in from
the north. A low risk of rip currents persists through Thursday
night before becoming a moderate risk on Friday into the weekend.
Trends in guidance will need to be monitored for a potential
increase in rip current probabilities depending on the evolution
of a tropical disturbance that will enter the gulf late week into
the weekend. MM/25
MARINE...
Issued at 453 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024
No significant marine impacts expected for the next few days. A
light onshore flow pattern during the day and light offshore flow at
night will prevail through Tuesday night. An increasing easterly
flow pattern is expected during the middle to latter part of the
week. /21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 90 68 90 68 89 68 87 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 40
Pensacola 88 72 88 71 88 72 85 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 50 50
Destin 87 74 87 72 87 74 85 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 50 40
Evergreen 89 67 88 64 90 65 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30
Waynesboro 87 65 87 66 87 63 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20
Camden 86 65 86 64 87 63 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20
Crestview 90 67 90 66 90 67 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 30, 6:30 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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