IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 3:33 AM EDT569
FXUS63 KIWX 290733
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
333 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonally mild this upcoming week with tranquil weather.
- Most showers ending tonight then mainly dry through the rest
of the week.
- Highs daily near 70 or in the 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Remnants of Helene were centered over Kentucky early this
morning. The system was vertically stacked and was drifting to
the east. The low had filled significantly during the past 24
hours, but scattered showers were still abundant north of the
low in a large waning deformation zone. Scattered showers were
spreading into the forecast area out of northern Ohio and Lower
Michigan. A fairly large area of showers had spread into
southeast Lower Michigan and should spread into far south
central Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. Have raised rain
chances earlier on an update to match obs, trends, and the
latest HRRR and other models that still support light showers.
The center of the low should drift over West Virginia Monday
evening and then accelerate northeast Monday night and Tuesday.
The upper level flow should become west to northwest for the
rest of the upcoming week. Have trended highs Wednesday
gradually warmer over the past several forecast cycles given the
lack of colder air being able to reach the area and the rapid
return flow starting Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Predominantly MVFR conditions at the TAF sites, with periods of
IFR likely, particularly at KFWA. KSBN is currently VFR with
little to no shower activity nearby. Added VCSH back in towards
10z-18z given potential for some of the precipitation NE over
Lower MI may reach the site, but confidence is low. We should
bounce between IFR/MVFR through the night and early morning if
all goes according to plan. Expect improvement as we go into
the afternoon hours. KFWA is currently reporting light rain
showers, and ended up carrying VCSH through much of the day.
Thus far models have overdone visibilities/precipitation and
even ceilings to some extent, so was hesitant to go beyond a
prob30 for the afternoon. Expect conditions to improve until
around 3z tomorrow night, when inversion heights may trap
moisture and create some low cigs/vis.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...MCD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 3:33 AM EDT---------------
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