IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 1:47 PM EDT729
FXUS63 KIWX 281747
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
147 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers through Tuesday then mainly dry the rest of
the week.
- Temperatures near to above normal with highs in the 70s except
cooler Wednesday with highs in the 60s.
- Dangerous swimming conditions persist on Lake Michigan today,
particularly along the southern Berrien and La Porte County
shorelines.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
The remnants of Helene were still bringing light rain to the
forecast area as the low near Evansville was filling. Bands of light
rain will gradually diminish as the low weakens. The highest
rainfall amounts were around an inch Friday were from Marion to
Portland. Given river observations and all other indications,
the rainfall was not causing any flooding or hydrologic impacts.
Any additional rain should be around a half an inch and is not
expected to cause any impacts. Large scale generally weak (per
GFS 305K and 310K surfaces) isentropic lift in a saturated
environment will continue to support light showers and areas of
light rain through Sunday.
Highest wind gusts yesterday were around 47 mph. The Wind Advisory
was allowed to expire at 11 PM EDT, although wind gusts up to 30
mph are still possible early this morning. The pressure gradient
was not great enough to support higher wind speeds.
The tropical remnants will finally lift out of the area Monday
followed by the upper level flow becoming northwest. Two fast
but relatively weak fronts will move across the area later in
the week, but are not expected to bring showers or storms.
Wednesday will be briefly colder behind the first front before
warm air returns Thursday. The second front should reach the
area next week Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Highly variable flight conditions expected at both sites as
remnants of "Helene" continue to spin moisture into the area.
Radar showing a persistent band of sprinkles/showers from near
KEKM to KJYM and points east. Trends suggest this will rotate
west and impact KSBN for the next couple of hours. Cigs and
vsbys under these showers have bounced around between MVFR and
IFR. Have tried to capture this in the new issuance but
conditions likely to vary more than depicted. Latest model
trends suggest chances for showers diminishes after 00Z at KSBN,
but MVFR/IFR cigs likely to hang on.
At KFWA...area has remained dry but cigs holding strong in the
upper IFR range. Some breaks in the clouds are showing up
allowing for limited mixing of cigs. These same breaks may allow
for some shower development this afternoon. Opted to handle with
a tempo group for a few hours. Thereafter, much like noted
above for KSBN models have backed off on NW extent of precip
chances tonight. Do think IFR (maybe low end MVFR) cigs and
possibly vsbys will linger through the period being in closer
proximity to the deeper moisture.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM CDT this evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
MIZ277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Fisher
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 1:47 PM EDT---------------
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