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789 FXUS64 KMOB 280852AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL352 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Sunday)Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024A deep low pressure system that includes the absorbed remains of Helene will move little and remain centered over the vicinity of Kentucky and northern Tennessee through Sunday, while the associated trough axis extends southward into the northern Gulf Coast region. The bulk of deep layer moisture and ascent associated with this feature will remain confined to northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight, though a slight enhancement in boundary layer moisture along the southern periphery of the trough axis should serve to aid in increased cloud cover, especially across interior portions of our forecast area this afternoon into tonight. Although a very brief/isolated rain shower or two cannot be entirely ruled out over northern portions of our CWA this afternoon and evening, the chance of measurable rain looks to remain below mentionable levels. Dry conditions look to continue into Sunday afternoon. Highs today and Sunday will be warm in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows tonight should continue to range in the lower to mid 60s over interior locations and in the upper 60s to mid 70s along the immediate coast and beaches.Beach Note: A persistent moderate southwesterly flow, high tidal ranges, and outgoing tide in the afternoon and early evening will warrant keeping a HIGH rip current risk in effect along the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through this evening. The rip current risk will probably come down by mid to late evening and into the overnight hours tonight, but with southwesterly flow staying elevated into the day Sunday, will probably opt to keep a MODERATE rip current risk in place through Sunday afternoon, especially toward the Florida panhandle beaches. The rip current risk will become LOW by Sunday night and continue into the early to middle part of next week. /21 &&.SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024Upper troughing generally persists across the region through Wednesday as the cutoff upper low gradually shears out and moves northeast into the Atlantic. In its wake, at least temporary weak upper ridging builds in from the west for Thursday into Friday. After this, the forecast becomes more uncertain on the upper air pattern as ridging may start to break down and generally weak and variable flow aloft takes its place. At the surface, we will continue to have generally drier air advected into the forecast area from the northwest thanks to the upper low. As this moves away, expect the moisture/humidity to return to the forecast mid to late week. With that said, overall dry weather will prevail through mid week with any small chance for showers or storms remaining well removed from land across the marine waters. Highs will generally be in the middle to upper 80's, perhaps locally touching 90 through mid week. Lows will remain in the lower to middle 60's inland and upper 60's to near 70 along the coast through mid week.Late week attention starts to shift towards another area of low pressure or surface trough that may develop in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico. The evolution of this feature will be the primary influence for the forecast late week into the weekend helping to advect a tropical airmass back into the forecast area. This is characterized by most guidance depicting a plume of 2 to 2.5 inch PWATs pushing into the forecast area Thursday into Friday which could help bolster heavy rainfall potential with any showers or storms. Rain chances increase during this period with at least a scattered coverage of showers and storms during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be knocked down a bit by increased cloud cover and rain chances, with highs going from middle and upper 80's Thursday to lower to middle 80's for Friday. Lows stay steady state with lower to middle 60's inland and upper 60's to near 70 along the coast. MM/25&&.MARINE...Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024Small craft operators should exercise caution through this afternoon over the Gulf waters as westerly winds remain elevated between 15-20 knots with higher gusts. Lighter winds are expected to return into early next week. /21&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 88 65 89 67 89 68 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 87 72 88 73 88 72 87 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 Destin 86 75 87 74 86 73 87 73 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 0 Evergreen 88 63 89 64 89 65 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 85 63 87 62 87 64 88 65 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 85 63 85 62 86 63 87 65 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 88 65 90 66 89 67 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 10 0 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
