ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 1:56 AM EDT022
FXUS61 KILN 290556
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
156 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of low pressure will slowly track east and weaken
into early next week keeping unsettled conditions across the
region. Drier weather will eventually return towards midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A vertically stacked low pressure system centered over west
central Kentucky will slow spin/meander east overnight. Embedded
spokes of mid level energy, coupled with weak to modest low
level convergent flow, will result in episodic showers,
generally shifting slowly north overnight and pinwheeling around
the primary low to the SW of the local area. Rainfall amounts
should not be overly heavy to cause issues, generally one
quarter of an inch or less (heaviest amounts expected between
I-70 and Ohio River). It will remain warm and muggy with lows in
the 60s amidst overcast conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The vertically stacked low will move ever so slowly to a
position near east central Kentucky by Sunday night. Spokes of
mid level energy will continue to rotate around the low, and
with some weak to modest low level convergent flow, episodic
showers will continue There even could be enough instability for
an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon/evening. Temperatures
will be held down due to pcpn and clouds. Overnight lows will
remain warm. Highs will range from the upper 60s to the lower
70s. Lows will remain in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pesky low pressure will continue to weaken, shear, and lift
northeast Monday into Monday night. Chance of showers will
continue, perhaps a rumble of thunder, with PoPs highest in the
eastern zones. PoPs will decrease Monday night. Weak high
pressure will briefly move into the region Monday night. It will
be a little warmer on Monday, highs in the lower to mid 70s.
Lows Monday night will drop only into the 60s again. Decreasing
wind and low level moisture may set up a situation for fog
development, so have kept the patchy fog (perhaps locally dense)
in the forecast.
For Tuesday into Tuesday night, a mid level trough will move
across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, pushing a cold
front through. A low chance for a shower/storm will remain until
frontal passage. After frontal passage, skies will clear and
drier air will filter into the region. Highs 75 to 80 will fall
into the upper 40s northwest to the mid 50s southeast.
High pressure will influence the area's weather
Wednesday/Thursday.
A dry cold front will pass through Friday/Friday night,
followed by high pressure once again on Saturday.
Cooler temperatures will occur on Wednesday and Saturday with
warmer temperatures Thursday/Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Plentiful low level moisture across the region should result in
ceilings eventually settling down into IFR. However, at the
beginning of the period there is plenty of variability in
ceilings with a challenging forecast on when they will lower.
Looks like ceilings may lift a bit in the afternoon which may
temporarily lift to MVFR but then drop back down late. There
will be showers about the region for much of the period. Most
visibility reductions will be no lower than MVFR.
OUTLOOK....MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities will persist
into Monday morning. MVFR ceilings will then likely continue
into Tuesday..
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...KC/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 1:56 AM EDT---------------
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