PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 12:55 AM EDT899
FXUS61 KPBZ 280455
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1255 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A large upper level low will drift eastward this weekend
reaching the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday. This will keep our
weather unsettled, but temperatures remain mild.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-Scattered showers possible overnight
-Most of the day looks dry, but clouds remain.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A shortwave trough will move northward through the region overnight.
Models are trying to develop showers along the trough and move
them to the north with the wave. The first problem is that
models are not initializing well and the second is the large
upper level dry slot that is moving northward across the area.
Will keep in the mention of showers overnight, but the PoPs will
be low.
Large upper low over Kentucky will make little eastward movement
today. With the dry slot aloft and the main Atlantic moisture
plume shifting northward, most of the day should be dry. A few
breaks in the cloud cover is possible this morning, but those
breaks will fill in quickly as moisture on the eastern flank of
the upper low spreads across the region this afternoon.
Temperatures will again be above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Clouds and the threat for light rain continues through Monday.
- Temperatures remain seasonable.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The upper low will continue to have influence on our region
into early next week. Rainfall chances will increase Sunday as
the center of the low moves over eastern KY. Rainfall amounts
Sunday should be light, with probs of >0.25 sitting around 50%
to 60%. The higher end of these probabilities will be over
portions of northern WV and the ridge counties. Latest models
very slowly absorb the low into the broader pattern with a
gradual shift in the axis of precipitation to the east going
into next week. This keeps rainfall chances in the forecast
through much of Monday with a focus along the terrain and east;
again dependent on the speed and track of the low pressure
system.
With southerly flow, temperatures will trend above average
Sunday with a moderation closer to normal on Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Ensembles favor a trough kicker to arrive Tuesday into
Wednesday, with dry and seasonable weather developing
thereafter
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensembles favor the weakening area of low pressure to shift
toward the Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday morning thanks
to a kicker upper trough diving out of central Canada. This
feature would likely offer a last chance for precipitation ahead
of a surface cold front before a drier and more seasonable
airmass develops.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds will continue to decrease overnight and become light.
Lingering low-level moisture will continue to create MVFR/IFR
ceilings for some terminals but will slowly improve. With a
noted dry slot on satellite now in place over the area, shower
potential has decreased significantly. Hi- Res guidance signals
cig improvement between 10Z to 12Z Saturday as the dry slot
remains in place. Showers will redevelop and move back into the
area during the day tomorrow with daytime heating in place.
Wind will veer slightly to the southeast tomorrow morning and
be not nearly as gusty.
.Outlook...
Occasional restrictions may occur if the remnants of Helene
drifts into southeast Ohio. Especially during the day on Sunday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22/34
LONG TERM...34
AVIATION...Hefferan/Shallenberger
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 12:55 AM EDT---------------
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