PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 7:04 PM CDT779
FXUS63 KPAH 280004
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
704 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers with heavy rain will continue through this
evening as the remnants of Hurricane Helene interact with an
upper-level storm system near the Quad State. An additional
1-2 inches of rain is possible.
- The Flood Watch and Wind Advisory remain in effect due to
conditions from the remnants of Hurricane Helene.
- The rains will become lighter and more isolated through the
weekend, while winds remain breezy Saturday then become light
on Sunday.
- The Quad State will begin to dry out on Tuesday as a cold
front passes.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024
The upper level low centered across the Tennessee Valley is
beginning to pull the remnants of Helene northwest. The center
of the circulation is moving through Eastern Kentucky early this
afternoon. The radar presentation shows extensive stratiform
rain moving east to west. The center will continue to track west
across Kentucky this afternoon and evening and will essentially
get stuck underneath the upper low and meander over the area
through Saturday. There is fairly good agreement that the
surface low center will track across central Kentucky this
afternoon, near EVV this evening and into the western Kentucky
area overnight into Saturday.
Winds are beginning to slowly pick up as the center moves
closer with a tightening pressure gradient and associated
pressure falls. Still expecting winds to meet or exceed wind
advisory criteria over the area this afternoon and evening.
Winds aloft are impressive, but some questions remain on if
these winds can mix down. Taking a look downstream we can see
plenty of obs within advisory criteria and as far as impacts
believe the wind advisory seems to be just fine. Winds should
decrease toward Saturday morning. The advisory will expire at
06Z tonight but gusts up to 30 mph remain possible into late
Saturday morning.
MRMS estimates of 2-4 inches of rain have fallen across much of
the area. With plenty of rain still left to come through this
afternoon and evening the flood watch remains in effect through
tonight. Rain showers will continue into Saturday associated
with the system but intensity should be improving. The upper low
and associated surface circulation doesn't move to much into
Sunday but overall will be weakening. Scattered showers will
remain through Sunday, with even less coverage on Monday. A
deepening trough to the northwest will finally kick the remnants
of Helene east bringing in drier weather before a cold front
makes its way through the area. Cool and dry weather conditions
are expected Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024
The remnants of Helene lingers nearby through this TAF issuance,
leading to widespread rain at each of the TAF sites.
Visibilities may drop in the heaviest rain showers, to near 2
miles at times. Otherwise, ceilings are expected to remain IFR
or possibly lower at times through Saturday evening. Winds will
gust as high as 35 kts early in the TAF period before gradually
diminishing overnight through the day Saturday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ076-086-087-
110>112-114.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for INZ081-082-085>088.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ Saturday for INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KYZ001>022.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 7:04 PM CDT---------------
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