JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 1:40 AM EDT890
FXUS63 KJKL 280540 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
140 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Showers move back into the area overnight as as an upper low
meanders through the Commonwealth.
- Winds will be much lighter through the night.
- Near to slightly below normal temperatures can be expected
through the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 140 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2024
After a lull, rain showers are moving back into the area from the
southwest. Have updated the forecast through the night mainly to
address the PoPs per the radar, and latest CAMs, trends. Did also
include the current obs and tendencies for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 901 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
Southerly breezes will continue to slowly diminish through the
overnight hours while moisture and shower chances slowly return
from west-to-east. The current forecast has this well depicted
and only required small tweaks to account for the latest
observations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
Late this afternoon, Helene continues to merge with an upper level
low across the Lower OH Valley to TN Plateau region at this time.
Dry slotting/drier air has moved into eastern KY as the sfc low
is now southwest of the region. This has ended the steadier rain
with a general downward trend in wind gusts for may areas though
some bands of showers remain. Within some of the dry slotting,
winds have been gusty with a wind gust to 56 mph measured at the
NWS Jackson KY office just after 4 PM EDT.
Tonight and Saturday, the remnants of Helene/post tropical cyclone
Helene will continue a merger with an upper level low that
meanders into and then over the Lower OH Valley region this
weekend. Impulses rotating around the upper low center should
lead to increases in shower chances at times with a general
increase in moisture back into eastern KY later tonight and into
Saturday morning. The upper low is expected to move move generally
west tonight toward the Paducah area and then trek eastward to
closer to I 65 on Saturday night.
Wind gusts should continue a general decrease this evening through
and then after sunset with shower chances diminishing except for
areas nearer to Lake Cumberland and further adjustments and or
cancellations of Wind Headlines will be needed. With rain having
slackened the Flood Watch was cancelled early. Given the increase
in moisture and one or more passing impulses later tonight and
into Saturday morning, shower chances will increase from west to
east with locations further west and northwest having the highest
chances for showers late tonight and for much of Saturday.
Locations in the far southeast will have the lowest chances for
showers through Saturday afternoon. A passing impulse and the
approach of the upper low should bring continued chances for
showers through Saturday night.
Diurnal temperature ranges will remain limited to begin the
weekend. Deeper moisture and cloud cover as well as more
persistent showers will lead to a west to east gradient in highs
for Saturday with the warmest values in the Big Sandy region and
cooler temperatures nearer to Lake Cumberland.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
The extended starts on Sunday morning as the merged upper level low
and remnants of Helene have merged and are parked across western KY.
Throughout the day the upper level low center will slowly shift
eastward, reaching central KY by the afternoon, and northern KY by
Monday morning, and WV by Monday evening. With this latest run, the
ECMWF is finally in line more with the GFS, which has the system
continuing to exit eastward through the day Tuesday and becoming an
open wave. Despite the exiting system, heights will actually fall
across the state as a large upper level trough across Canada shifts
eastward. A high pressure ridge will also be in place across the
southeast, and should be the dominating factor into the
Commonwealth, despite the lowering heights.
This will play into the sensible weather. So long as the upper level
low is in place expect unsettled conditions across the CWA. Rain
will peak across the CWA during the afternoon hours, and diminish to
chances during the overnight with the loss of afternoon
heating/mixing. Likely pops are still forecast across the CWA on
Tuesday, mainly central and east, as the system pulls eastward out
of the state. On Tuesday nights, models point at a weak cold front
passing through ahead of building high pressure across the central
Conus. This will lead to an uptick of rain as it moves through on
Tuesday night along the boundary.
Models are all showing precip clearing out by Wednesday as the high
pressure takes hold and upper level heights lower but become more
zonal. However, the NBM is still keeping slight chance pops in
place. This is likely due to the inconsistency in previous model
runs between the GFS and ECMWF. If these models continue to agree,
expect these pops to be removed in the next runs. There is full
agreement that high pressure will keep conditions dry across the
region on Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday will also be the coolest
days, especially at night - partially because of the incoming NW
flow and partially because of clearing skies overnight allowing for
good radiational cooling. If all things stay the same, can't rule
out enough radiational cooling, subsidence (high pressure overhead),
and CAA that low to mid 40s are forecast Wednesday night into
Thursday and Thursday night into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2024
At TAF issuance time, VFR and some high end MVFR conditions are
noted through the area. Winds are generally southeasterly at 5 to
15 kts with some gusts to up to around 25 kts. Winds will
continue to slowly diminish through the overnight hours as the the
merged remnants of Hurricane Helene and an upper low wobble over
the Lower Ohio Valley. Impulses riding around the upper low will
lead to an increase in moisture and MVFR ceilings from west-to-
east overnight and into Saturday. KSJS should remain VFR the
longest.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 1:40 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
