IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 26, 2:05 AM EDT396
FXUS63 KIWX 260605
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
205 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild and dry through Thursday night. Patchy fog is expected
tonight into early morning, especially west of Interstate 69.
- Rain showers associated with a tropical system enter the
forecast late Friday afternoon through the weekend.
- Seasonable temperatures are replaced by a temporary dose of
fall by the middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024
High pressure across the upper Midwest and inverted sfc trough
feature across the Ohio Valley has allowed for broad weak
low level boundary in this weak low level deformation flow.
Have had a few instances this evening of some funnel cloud
development in vicinity of this boundary west of KFWA with RAP
analysis depicting weak axis of sfc vorticity. Radar trends have
been on the decline over the past hour and continued
diminishment of weak low level instability should end isolated
shower potential. Some patchy shallow fog is possible overnight,
mainly across the far northwest. No major changes made to the
forecast at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024
Isolated showers will remain possible near a weak trough axis across
northern IN and srn MI this afternoon given sufficient boundary
layer moisture and diurnal heating. This trough washes out tonight
into tomorrow with drier easterly winds developing on the southern
fringe of a low level anticyclone building northeast into the Great
Lakes. Clearing and winds becoming light/variable for a time later
tonight may allow for some patchy ground fog to develop across
mainly nw IN and portions of southern MI.
Main focus into Friday and the weekend will turn to Hurricane Helene
remnants being absorbed into a leftover upper low over the western
TN Valley. Friday likely remains dry with northeast winds becoming
breezy in response to the sfc low center pivot north-northwest into
Kentucky for a time. A few bands of light rain may clip the area on
the northern fringe later Friday into Saturday, best chances south
of US 30/24. Seasonable temperatures expected otherwise before a
cold front brings a shot of fall-like temps by the middle of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024
Predominantly VFR conditions at the TAF sites, with the
exception of some patchy fog this morning. Winds will be either
light out of the N-NE or calm, in addition to mostly clear
skies (the exception being a band of 7000ft ceilings between
KSBN/KFWA-closer to KSBN). As of 6z, visibility at a majority
of sites were around 10 miles, with a few spots (KBEH/KMGC),
fluctuating from around 1-3 miles. Only two sites further south
(Marion and Portland, IN) are showing less than 1 mile. Most of
the guidance keeps KFWA P6SM, likely due to the slightly
stronger winds (4-7 knots) expected to persist overnight.
KSBN on the other hand is tricky-as current observations have
3-5 knot winds and the cloud boundary is just to the south of
the site. If the clouds lift into KSBN, it will likely preclude
the visibility from dropping below MVFR, if at all. Held steady
with a 4SM BR tempo for now lasting through the early morning.
High/mid level clouds and wind speeds increase at both sites
into the afternoon and tomorrow night as Helene remnants
approach.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Marsili
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...MCD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 26, 2:05 AM EDT---------------
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