NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 16, 7:00 AM AST555
WTNT42 KNHC 160235
TCDAT2
Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024
Gordon is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone tonight. While
the low-level circulation continues to be well-defined, the
convection associated with this circulation is meager, and barely
meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Subjective and
objective estimates continue to decrease this evening, and the
initial intensity is set to 25 kt this advisory.
The tropical depression continues to move south of due west,
estimated at 260/6 kt. This motion should continue for the next day
or so as the shallow cyclone is primarily steered by a low to
mid-level ridge positioned to its west-northwest. Thereafter, a
significant weakness in this steering flow is forecast to develop,
related to a non-tropical low expected to drop equatorward towards
Gordon. This steering change is expected to cause the tropical
cyclone to first slow its forward motion, and then gradually turn
poleward, moving north-northeastward by the end of the forecast
period. The track guidance this cycle is a bit more poleward and
faster compared to the previous one, and the NHC track is once
again nudged a bit more right and faster compared to the prior
advisory.
Gordon is struggling mightily against very dry mid-level air, and
this environment is unlikely to change much over the next few days.
In fact, it would not be surprising to see Gordon become a remnant
low at any time if convection does not soon return in a more
prominent way near the center. After 48 h, the environment is
forecast to begin moistening some while vertical wind shear is
expected to be fairly low, providing an opportunity for Gordon to
re-intensify, presuming there is enough of a system left to take
advantage of the improving environmental conditions. The NHC
intensity forecast is not much different from the prior one aside
from the weaker initial intensity, and assumes Gordon will survive
in the short-term, which is not a forgone conclusion.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 19.0N 46.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.9N 47.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 19.0N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 19.3N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 19.5N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 20.0N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 20.8N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 23.5N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 26.0N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 16, 7:00 AM AST---------------
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