PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 7:27 AM EDT245
FXUS61 KPBZ 141127
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
727 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and above average temperatures will continue through
early next week under high pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather continues with above average temperatures
-------------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure will remain centered across the Great Lakes region
and southern Ontario today. This will maintain the dry and warm
weather across the region today. Most of the cirrus that was
across portions of the region has exited as the upper flow veers
to the east. These clouds were on the outer periphery of the
remnant low of Francine, which will continue to weaken across
the Mississippi Valley region.
Temperatures at 850 mb will be similar or slightly higher than
on Friday, with 500 mb heights increasing some as well. High
temperatures should be a degree or two warmer than Friday's
readings, which will be around 10 degrees above average.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warm weather continues
-------------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure will remain across much of the NE CONUS through at
least Monday. Low pressure is also expected to develop through
the weekend off of the Carolina coast. This low could eventually
become tropical.
The high is expected to gradually break down by early next week,
as the low tracks across the the Carolinas into Virginia. Models
continue to differ on the exact track of this low, with
ensembles favoring a more easterly path. The latest operational
models are trending toward the west. By late Monday night,
enough moisture could spread northward resulting in slight
chances for showers south of I 68.
Warm temperatures will continue, with readings from 5 to 10
degrees above average.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Low rain chances return through mid week
- Cooler, but still above average temperatures
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate low pressure will be across the North
Carolina/Virginia region by Tuesday. Operational models continue
the trend westward, while ensembles favor a more eastward track.
The track of this low will partly depend on how fast the NE
CONUS high breaks down, etc. With the uncertainty in the exact
forecast scenario, continued to follow close to the ensemble
blend, which results in low rain chances returning mainly east
of I 79 by Tuesday. These will continue into Thursday as
ensembles show the low drifting across the Mid Atlantic region.
Somewhat cooler temperatures are expected, though reading will
still be around 5 degrees above average through most of the
long term period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions and generally light easterly winds are expected
throughout the TAF period. Cannot completely rule out a few
infrequent gusts to around 15 knots this afternoon, primarily at
PIT/AGC/HLG, but overall probabilities for occurrence remain too
low (<30%) to warrant a mention in the TAFs.
.Outlook...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend and
into early next week, save occasional morning fog chances.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Cermak
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 7:27 AM EDT---------------
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