JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 10:50 AM EDT630
FXUS63 KJKL 141450
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1050 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures about 5 degrees above normal for this
weekend.
- Near normal temperatures return to East KY to start a new work
week.
- Slight chances (20%) for showers Tuesday through Thursday,
mainly in the eastern most portions of the region.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2024
Forecast is still on track so far this morning. Updated the near
term forecast with the latest observations to make sure they were
on track with ongoing conditions. All updates have been published
and sent to NDFD/web. A new set of zones/SAFs was sent out to
remove morning fog wording.
UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2024
Updated grids based on recent observations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2024
Current satellite imagery shows fog continuing to develop across
valley locations early this morning. Patchy fog is expected to
dissipate or mix out by 14Z (10 AM EDT) this morning. Large scale
synoptic pattern shows a blocking high over the Great Lakes which
is preventing the propagation of remnant moisture out of the
area, leaving it across the Southeast Conus. Today, highs will be
slightly above average in the low to mid 80s with partly cloudy
skies. Winds will be fairly light out of the east- southeast 5-10
mph. These winds will begin to advect a drier airmass into the
region by late today. This will set the stage for cooler overnight
lows tonight compared to present. Lows are forecasted in the mid
50s for colder sheltered valleys, and low 60s for ridgetops.
Patchy fog may redevelop overnight heading into Sunday.
Sunday, mostly sunny skies with light east-southeast winds of 5-10
mph can be expected with highs in the low to mid 80s again with
highs on average a degree or two. The column will dry from today
into Sunday and should warm a bit more readily.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 433 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2024
We will see mostly dry weather during the extended period of the
forecast, as a ridge of high pressure exerts is influence on
regional weather. However, the latest NBM, GFS, and ECMWF all have
an area of low pressure forming off the southeast CONUS coast and
drifting westward over land the middle of next week. This system
could come close enough to our area to allow a few rain showers to
sneak over our higher eastern terrain and into our eastern counties
Monday night through Wednesday and again late Thursday. The overall
flow pattern aloft will start off with a large and well developed
trough of low pressure will be moving onshore in the Pacific
Northwest, with broad ridging in place across New England, the Great
Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic regions Sunday night into
Monday. This pattern will begin to shift late Monday and Monday,
with the western trough move south down the west coast, and low
pressure forming off shore of the southeast CONUS and then drifting
westward onto land. The ridge mentioned earlier will hold fast for a
bit, but will eventually erode a bit along its southern periphery,
once the southeast low moves our way.
By Tuesday, the western trough will make a northeast push over the
northern Rocky Mountains, with the southeast low moving into
Virginia and North Carolina. This will be the period during which we
might see a few showers invading our eastern counties. The western
trough will continue to plow eastward into the northern Plains by
the end of the week, and the eastern ridge re-establishing itself
and pushing the southeastern trough back toward the coast, giving us
dry weather Friday into Saturday.
Temperatures in the extended should be near normal, with daily maxes
reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s, and nightly lows falling into
the 50s across the board. No weather hazards expected in the
extended portion of the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2024
Updated TAFs as previous guidance suggesting low level wind shear
(LLWS) has weekend or moved out of the area.
Any lingering MVFR or localized IFR conditions caused by valley
fog is expected to lift by 14Z. Valley fog should again develop
in some valley locations between 04Z and 12Z, but probably wont
affect any TAF sites. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. Winds
will generally be from the east at 10 kts or less through the
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 10:50 AM EDT---------------
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