JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 4:33 AM EDT979
FXUS63 KJKL 140833
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
433 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures about 5 degrees above normal for this
weekend.
- Near normal temperatures return to East KY to start a new work
week.
- Slight chances (20%) for showers Tuesday through Thursday,
mainly in the eastern most portions of the region.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 222 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2024
Development of valley fog is evident in Kentucky and Cumberland
basins as of 2 AM. Hourly grids were updated based on recent
observation trends. For the remainder of the night expect fog to
increase in coverage and thickness in valley locations.
UPDATE Issued at 1040 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with mainly just the
inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did
drop the thunder chances, as well. These minor adjustments have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of
the HWO, zones, and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 840 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2024
00Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky between the sfc low
associated with Francine's remnants to the southwest and high
pressure to the north. This continues the easterly flow of air at
low levels over the area with a downslope component. this is
keeping much of the JKL area dry while a lingering band of light
rain is weakening in the north and a few more sfc based showers
are also mostly fading out in the far south. Under variable
clouds, temperatures are generally in the lower to middle 70s
while dewpoints vary from the lower 60s northeast to the upper 60s
in the southwest. Have updated the PoPs per the latest radar
tendencies and CAMs guidance into the night. Did also include the
current obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 430 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2024
A remnant upper level low from dissipated Hurricane Francine is
near Memphis late today. A leading band of moisture rotating
around it is over our northern counties, resulting in light
showers from elevated moisture. Further south, drier air aloft
has allowed for more sunshine/destabilization and led to isolated
surface based showers developing. Won't rule out a thunderstorm
in our southern counties for a short time yet late today. Will
look for southern activity to die out with loss of heating.
Models indicate northern precip will also dissipate, but being
that models have underdone this precip, suspect it will be a
slower process than what models indicate.
Once we are dry later this evening, it should last through
Saturday night as high pressure at all levels nudges in from the
northeast. Greater sunshine on Saturday should allow for somewhat
warmer temperatures. Although it looks like some surface based
instability will develop on Saturday, dry air aloft and a lack of
strong features will tend to inhibit deep convection, and sub-20
POPs were used as suggested by the latest guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 433 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2024
We will see mostly dry weather during the extended period of the
forecast, as a ridge of high pressure exerts is influence on
regional weather. However, the latest NBM, GFS, and ECMWF all have
an area of low pressure forming off the southeast CONUS coast and
drifting westward over land the middle of next week. This system
could come close enough to our area to allow a few rain showers to
sneak over our higher eastern terrain and into our eastern counties
Monday night through Wednesday and again late Thursday. The overall
flow pattern aloft will start off with a large and well developed
trough of low pressure will be moving onshore in the Pacific
Northwest, with broad ridging in place across New England, the Great
Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic regions Sunday night into
Monday. This pattern will begin to shift late Monday and Monday,
with the western trough move south down the west coast, and low
pressure forming off shore of the southeast CONUS and then drifting
westward onto land. The ridge mentioned earlier will hold fast for a
bit, but will eventually erode a bit along its southern periphery,
once the southeast low moves our way.
By Tuesday, the western trough will make a northeast push over the
northern Rocky Mountains, with the southeast low moving into
Virginia and North Carolina. This will be the period during which we
might see a few showers invading our eastern counties. The western
trough will continue to plow eastward into the northern Plains by
the end of the week, and the eastern ridge re-establishing itself
and pushing the southeastern trough back toward the coast, giving us
dry weather Friday into Saturday.
Temperatures in the extended should be near normal, with daily maxes
reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s, and nightly lows falling into
the 50s across the board. No weather hazards expected in the
extended portion of the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2024
Current satellite imagery shows the development of some patchy
valley fog that will likely increase in coverage and intensity
between now and sunrise. Some MVFR or localized IFR is possible
through around 14Z, but probably wont affect any TAF sites.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will generally be
from the east at 10 kts or less through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 4:33 AM EDT---------------
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