BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 10:31 PM EDT547
FXUS61 KBOX 110231
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1031 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates our weather through at least early next
week, maintaining dry weather and above average temperatures
for the foreseeable future.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1020 PM Update:
High pressure maintaining tranquil wx conditions tonight, with
clear skies and light northerly winds allowing for good
radiational cooling. A few locations which typically radiate
well have already dipped below forecast lows and tried to
account for this by incorporating a little more of the MOS
guidance for forecast lows. Will continue to monitor the
potential for radiation fog to develop; it seems more likely to
develop in the river valleys but may be too dry for development
elsewhere.
Previous discussion:
High pressure in control of our weather tonight. Expecting winds
and clouds to diminish with sunset, setting up near ideal
radiational cooling conditions. Favored the lower temperature
guidance tonight.
Some question about the possibility for fog overnight. Most
likely area would be across portions of the lower CT River
valley. At this time, kept fog out of the forecast with dew
points expected to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. That may be
a little bit too dry for fog to develop. This aspect of the
forecast will need to be monitored this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure should be more overhead Wednesday, then moving
offshore for Wednesday Night. Weaker pressure gradient should
permit more seabreezes during the day, then another night of
rather light S-SW or near calm winds. Slightly higher dew points
expected later in the day into Wednesday night. Near to slightly
below normal temperatures expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Point:
* Dry weather and above average temperatures into early next
week
About as quiet as the weather gets around here and this pattern
looks to hold through at least early next week if not a bit
longer. Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will
remain anchored over New England maintaining mostly sunny, warm
days and clear, cool nights through the period.
There is a weak shortwave that passes by to our north sometime
Friday but at this point it appears to be moisture starved and
should only produce some cloudiness. NBM 24 hour probabilities
for 0.01" or more of precipitation have decreased and are well
below 10 percent, so we will maintain a dry forecast.
Tropics are becoming a bit more active this week but there are
no direct threats right now. Certainly something to monitor over
the next few weeks as we are in the heart of the tropical season
in the Atlantic.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00Z TAF Update: High confidence.
VFR SKC for much of the TAF period. Light W/SW winds veer to N
overnight. Sea breezes develop along both coasts late Wed
morning while inland winds become S-SW 5-10kt, followed by light
SW winds Wed night.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: VFR. Patchy FG.
Thursday Night through Sunday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Wednesday Night: High confidence.
High pressure remains over waters for next several days. Light
winds with daily sea breezes and fairly calm seas expected.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/JWD
NEAR TERM...Belk/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...Loconto/BW/JWD
MARINE...Belk/Loconto/JWD
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 10:31 PM EDT----------------
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