PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 7:38 PM EDT262
FXUS61 KPBZ 132338
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
738 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and above average temperatures will continue through
early next week under high pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather continues with above-average temperatures.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Update...
High pressure remains centered across the Great Lakes region
into southern Ontario. This will maintain dry weather overnight.
Cirrus on the periphery of the remnant tropical low Francine
will exit the region overnight as the upper level flow veers
more to the east.
Previous discussion...
Mostly clear skies with a light easterly gradient breeze tonight
will allow lows to dip into the mid to upper 50s, similar to
Thursday night. Areas of river valley fog are again favored
north of Pittsburgh similar to the previous few nights.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather with temperatures still above average.
- Turning a bit breezier over the weekend, especially in higher
elevations of West Virginia.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
High confidence forecast continues into the weekend with more of the
same from the this past week. Surface high pressure remains dominant
and builds further as Francine's remnants will be blocked off to our
south and west as it weakens. Strong 588-590 dam upper level ridging
remains across the Great Lakes region.
Plenty of sunshine with 850 mb temperatures bumping up perhaps a
degree or two combined with modest height rises will support
temperatures once again near 10 degrees above average. Wind will
become a bit breezier over the weekend, especially in the higher
elevations, as the gradient tightens with the high slowly meandering
east and a coastal low pressure system progged to develop off the
coast of the Carolinas. This could result in some elevated downslope
wind gusts for the ridges and adjacent areas given a southeasterly
direction. Latest NBM and HREF probabilities are hinting at 30 mph
not being off the table for the in the higher elevations in West
Virginia.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Temperatures gradually drop through mid-week but still above
normal.
- Low probability rain chances by mid-week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Still seeing good agreement among the ensembles to start off the
next work week with high pressure in place. The only notable change
to the pattern is that the high will begin to flatten some and
meander to the east as a wave passes to the north and a coastal low
begins to take shape offshore of the Carolinas. Dry weather is
favored to continue through Monday and most of Tuesday areawide with
temperatures gradually falling a couple degrees each day but still
above normal.
By mid-week is where things get at least a little more interesting
comparatively. As the coastal low takes shape, the high will weaken
and break down. Upper ridging remains, but the low looks to be able
to sneak underneath it. Ensemble clusters then present essentially
two camps: one where the low merges with Francine's remnants
becoming slightly deeper and one where it doesn't merge and remains
weaker. Our best rain chances would be mostly tied to the merging
solution which is lower probability. The majority of clusters
represent a drier solution with lacking deep layer moisture and the
highest probability of rain shunted to our east. Opted to hold with
NBM which offers generally 20-30% PoPs, highest south and east of
Pittsburgh, until a clearer solution becomes evident.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Light easterly winds and VFR conditions are expected to persist
over the area as high pressure remains locked in overhead. Once
again, the largest uncertainty comes with the possibility of
fog development mostly centered around FKL/DUJ. The formation of
fog really comes down to whether or not winds will be light
enough in the area to support fog development. At this time,
there are no explicit mentions of fog, but we will continue to
monitor the possibility overnight.
.Outlook...
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the weekend and
into early next week as high pressure remains in place. The only
wrinkle to this is the chance for river valley fog each
morning, primarily around FKL/DUJ.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLB
NEAR TERM...WM/MLB
SHORT TERM...MLB
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...AK
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 7:38 PM EDT---------------
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