LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 2:49 PM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...744
FXUS64 KLIX 121949
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
249 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
The remains of Francine continues to work northward across the mid
MS River Valley this afternoon. In the wake of the system, drier
air has started to filter into the region within the dry
northwesterly flow aloft. Cannot rule out a stray shower or two,
but POPs are going to remain very low with more and more dry air
moving into the region.
Temperatures tonight will be a bit cool as the upper trough that
picked up Francine works its way into the region. Lower heights
and thicknesses will allow us to drop into the middle and upper
60s across the interior and perhaps lower 70s right along the
immediate coast. On Friday, some intermittent cloudiness will be
present and with the soil moisture running higher the daytime
should be a bit more humid than otherwise. However, temperatures
only in the middle and upper 80s will be common. Friday night
again with continued dry air moving into the region, overnight
lows will be a bit "fresher" with nearly all locations being a few
degrees cooler than Friday morning. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Going into the weekend, the first half starts out dry with
continued northwesterly flow aloft and a relatively dry boundary
layer in place. That said, we'll actually watch for at least a
portion of what once was Francine drop along a surface boundary
back toward the south and east toward the north central or
northeast Gulf Coast (nontropical). This could spark a shower or
storm on Sunday through early portions of next week. Temperatures
again will be right around or slightly above average with plenty
of surface heating. However, RH values will be a bit higher with
soil moisture so heat index values near 100F will be likely this
weekend and perhaps early next week. By the end of the forecast
period (generally midweek and beyond) dry northwest flow continues
with much of any upper level support for POPs shifting
downstream. This should help limit rain chances a good bit.
Eventually and H5 ridge takes shape over our region, which again
suggests dry and perhaps a bit warmer rounding out the long term
period. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Low clouds will continue for most of the local terminals this
afternoon with some breaks and improvement taking place eventually
through the TAF cycle. That said, MVFR will be common with
reductions to IFR possible especially overnight tonight with both
VIS/CIGs dropping respectively. CIG reductions most VIS reductions
for mainly MCB and HUM. By the end of the cycle most all terminals
should improve to VFR and winds will finally relax to calm/light
respectively. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
We'll hang onto hazardous marine conditions for just a little
while longer. The SCA should drop off by 00z this evening and
beyond there will be mostly favorable marine conditions through
the period. There could be some isolated convection later this
weekend and early next week. If, indeed, convection does develop,
mariners can expected locally higher winds and seas in and around
the stronger showers and storms. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 66 83 65 87 / 10 10 0 10
BTR 69 88 70 92 / 20 0 0 10
ASD 71 87 69 88 / 10 0 0 10
MSY 72 87 72 88 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 72 86 70 87 / 10 0 0 10
PQL 73 90 69 90 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058-
076-078-080-082-084-086.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-552-555-557-572-575-577.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
MSZ086>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534-
536-538-552-555-557-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 2:49 PM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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